Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Quantifying the impact of environmental variables upon catch-per-unit-effort of the Blue Shark Prionace glauca in the Western English Channel

The effect of environmental variables on blue shark Prionace glauca catch per unit effort (CPUE) in a recreational fishery in the western English Channel, between June and September 1998–2011, was quantified using generalized additive models (GAMs). Sea surface temperature (SST) explained 1·4% of GAM deviance, and highest CPUE occurred at 16·7° C, reflecting the optimal thermal preferences of this species. Surface chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) significantly affected CPUE and caused 27·5% of GAM deviance. Additionally, increasing CHL led to rising CPUE, probably due to higher productivity supporting greater prey biomass. The density of shelf-sea tidal mixing fronts explained 5% of GAM deviance, but was non-significant, with increasing front density negatively affecting CPUE. Time-lagged frontal density significantly affected CPUE, however, causing 12·6% of the deviance in a second GAM and displayed a positive correlation. This outcome suggested a delay between the evolution of frontal features and the subsequent accumulation of productivity and attraction of higher trophic level predators, such as P. glauca.

Quantifying the impact of environmental variables upon catch-per-unit-effort of the Blue Shark Prionace glauca in the Western English Channel

The effect of environmental variables on blue shark Prionace glauca catch per unit effort (CPUE) in a recreational fishery in the western English Channel, between June and September 1998–2011, was quantified using generalized additive models (GAMs). Sea surface temperature (SST) explained 1·4% of GAM deviance, and highest CPUE occurred at 16·7° C, reflecting the optimal thermal preferences of this species. Surface chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) significantly affected CPUE and caused 27·5% of GAM deviance. Additionally, increasing CHL led to rising CPUE, probably due to higher productivity supporting greater prey biomass. The density of shelf-sea tidal mixing fronts explained 5% of GAM deviance, but was non-significant, with increasing front density negatively affecting CPUE. Time-lagged frontal density significantly affected CPUE, however, causing 12·6% of the deviance in a second GAM and displayed a positive correlation. This outcome suggested a delay between the evolution of frontal features and the subsequent accumulation of productivity and attraction of higher trophic level predators, such as P. glauca.

Spatial Variability of Durum Wheat Yield as Related to Soil Parameters in an Organic Field

The yield in organic farming is generally much lower than its potential, which is due to its specificity. The objective of the present study was to quantify the yield spatial variation of wheat and relate it to soil parameters in an organic farm located in the north of the Negev Desert. Soil samples were gathered in a triangular grid at three time intervals. Yields were measured at 73 georeferenced points before the actual harvest. Several thematic maps of soil and yield parameters were produced using geographic information system and geostatistical methods. The strongest spatial correlation was found in the weight of 1000 grains and the weakest was in carbon flow. Temporal relationships were found between soil nitrate concentration, soil water content, and leaf area index. Wheat yield varied from 1.11 to 2.84 Mg ha(-1) and this remarkable variation indicates that the spatial analysis of soil and yield parameters is significant in organic agriculture.

Optimization of a total acid hydrolysis based protocol for the quantification of carbohydrate in macroalgae

Accurate quantification of carbohydrate content of biomass is crucial for many bio-refining applications. The standardised NREL two stage complete acid hydrolysis protocol was evaluated for its suitability towards seaweeds, as the protocol was originally developed for lignocellulosic feedstocks. The compositional differences between the major polysaccharides in seaweeds and terrestrial plants, and seaweed’s less recalcitrant nature, could suggest the NREL based protocol may be too extreme. Underestimations of carbohydrate content through the degradation of liberated sugars into furan compounds may yield erroneous data. An optimised analysis method for carbohydrate quantification in the brown seaweed L. digitata was thus developed and evaluated. Results from this study revealed stage 1 of the assay was crucial for optimisation however stage 2 proved to be less crucial. The newly optimised protocol for L. digitata yielded 210 mg of carbohydrate per g of biomass compared to a yield of only 166 mg/g from the original NREL protocol. Use of the new protocol on two other species of seaweed also gave consistent results; higher carbohydrate and significantly lower sugar degradation products generation than the original protocol. This study demonstrated the importance of specific individual optimisations of the protocol for accurate sugar quantification, particularly for different species of seaweed