Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.

The meso-scale response of subarctic North Pacific seabird community structure to lower trophic level abundance and diversity

Understanding the mechanisms that structure communities and influence biodiversity are fundamental goals of ecology. To test the hypothesis that the abundance and diversity of upper-trophic level predators (seabirds) is related to the underlying abundance and diversity of their prey (zooplankton) and ecosystem-wide energy availability (primary production), we initiated a monitoring program in 2002 that jointly and repeatedly surveys seabird and zooplankton populations across a 7,500 km British Columbia-Bering Sea-Japan transect. Seabird distributions were recorded by a single observer (MH) using a strip-width technique, mesozooplankton samples were collected with a Continuous Plankton Recorder, and primary production levels were derived using the appropriate satellite parameters and the Vertically Generalized Production Model (Behrenfeld and Falkowski 1997). Each trophic level showed clear spatio-temporal patterns over the course of the study. The strongest relationship between seabird abundance and diversity and the lower trophic levels was observed in March/April ('spring') and significant relationships were also found through June/July ('summer'). No discernable relationships were observed during the September/October ('fall') months. Overall, mesozooplankton abundance and biomass explained the dominant portion of seabird abundance and diversity indices (richness, Simpson's Index, and evenness), while primary production was only related to seabird richness. These findings underscore the notion that perturbations of ocean productivity and lower trophic level ecosystem constituents influenced by climate change, such as shifts in timing (phenology) and synchronicity (match-mismatch), could impart far-reaching consequences throughout the marine food web.

Monitoring marine plankton ecosystems: Identification of the most relevant indicators of the state of an ecosystem

The number of variables involved in the monitoring of an ecosystem can be high and often one of the first stages in the analysis is to reduce the number of variables. We describe a method developed for geological purposes, using the information theory, that enables selection of the most relevant variables. This technique also allows the examination of the asymmetrical relationships between variables. Applied to a set of physical and biological variables (plankton assemblages in four areas of the North Sea), the method shows that biological variables are more informative than physical variables although the controlling factors are mainly physical (sea surface temperature in winter and spring). Among biological variables, diversity measures and warm-water species assemblages are informative for the state of the North Sea pelagic ecosystems while among physical variables sea surface temperature in late winter and early spring are highly informative. Although often used in bioclimatology, the utilisation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index does not seem to provide a lot of information. The method reveals that only the extreme states of this index has an influence on North Sea pelagic ecosystems. The substantial and persistent changes that were detected in the dynamic regime of the North Sea ecosystems and called regime shift are detected by the method and corresponds to the timing of other shifts described in the literature for some European Systems such as the Baltic and the Mediterranean Sea when both physical and biological variables are considered.

Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.