Synchronous response of marine plankton ecosystems to climate in the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea

Over the last few decades, global warming has accelerated both the rate and magnitude of changes observed in many functional units of the Earth System. In this context, plankton are sentinel organisms because they are sensitive to subtle levels of changes in temperature and might help in identifying the current effects of climate change on pelagic ecosystems. In this paper, we performed a comparative approach in two regions of the North Atlantic (i.e. the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea) to explore the relationships between changes in marine plankton, the regional physico-chemical environment and large-scale hydro-climatic forcing using four key indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) anomalies. Our analyses suggest that long-term changes in the states of the two ecosystems were synchronous and correlated to the same large-scale hydro-climatic variables: NHT anomalies, the AMO and to a lesser extent the EA pattern. No significant correlation was found between long-term ecosystem modifications and the state of the NAO. Our results suggest that the effect of climate on these ecosystems has mainly occurred in both regions through the modulation of the thermal regime.

Ocean climate anomalies and the ecology of the North Sea

Long-term changes in the plankton of the North Sea are investigated using data from the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey. During the last 4 decades, there appears to have been 2 large anomalous periods within the plankton data set, one that occurred in the late 1970s and the other in the late 1980s. These anomalous periods seem to be largely synchronous with unusual ocean climate conditions that have occurred episodically over a timescale of decades. The unusual ocean climate conditions prevailing at these 2 time periods appear to contain important hydrographical elements that involve oceanic incursions into the North Sea. This paper, using data from the CPR survey and providing evidence from other studies, focuses on the relationship between the long-term changes in the biology of the North Sea and these 2 exceptional hydro-climatic events. Here, we suggest that while atmospheric variability and associated changes in regional temperatures have a dominant effect on the marine environment, oceanic influences on the ecology of a semi-closed environment such as the North Sea may have been underestimated in the past.

Scale-dependent response diversity of seabirds to prey in the North Sea

Functional response diversity is defined as the diversity of responses to environmental change among species that contribute to the same ecosystem function. Because different ecological processes dominate on different spatial and temporal scales, response diversity is likely to be scale dependent. Using three extensive data sets on seabirds, pelagic fish, and zooplankton, we investigate the strength and diversity in the response of seabirds to prey in the North Sea over three scales of ecological organization. Two-stage analyses were used to partition the variance in the abundance of predators and prey among the different scales of investigation: variation from year to year, variation among habitats, and variation on the local patch scale. On the year-to-year scale, we found a strong and synchronous response of seabirds to the abundance of prey, resulting in low response diversity. Conversely, as different seabird species were found in habitats dominated by different prey species, we found a high diversity in the response of seabirds to prey on the habitat scale. Finally, on the local patch scale, seabirds were organized in multispecies patches. These patches were weakly associated with patches of prey, resulting in a weak response strength and a low response diversity. We suggest that ecological similarities among seabird species resulted in low response diversity on the year-to-year scale. On the habitat scale, we suggest that high response diversity was due to interspecific competition and niche segregation among seabird species. On the local patch scale, we suggest that facilitation with respect to the detection and accessibility of prey patches resulted in overlapping distribution of seabirds but weak associations with prey. The observed scale dependencies in response strength and diversity have implications for how the seabird community will respond to different environmental disturbances.

The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.

Patterns of jellyfish abundance in the North Atlantic

A number of explanations have been advanced to account for the increased frequency and intensity at which jellyfish (pelagic cnidarians and ctenophores) blooms are being observed, most of which have been locally directed. Here, we investigate seasonal and inter-annual patterns in abundance and distribution of jellyfish in the North Atlantic Ocean to determine if there have been any system-wide changes over the period 1946–2005, by analysing records of the presence of coelenterates from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey. Peaks in jellyfish abundance are strongly seasonal in both oceanic and shelf areas: oceanic populations have a mid-year peak that is more closely related to peaks in phyto- and zooplankton, whilst the later peak of shelf populations mirrors changes in SST and reflects processes of advection and aggregation. There have been large amplitude cycles in the abundance of oceanic and shelf jellyfish (although not synchronous) over the last 60 years, with a pronounced synchronous increase in abundance in both areas over the last 10 years. Inter-annual variations in jellyfish abundance in oceanic areas are related to zooplankton abundance and temperature changes, but not to the North Atlantic Oscillation or to a chlorophyll index. The long-term inter-annual abundance of jellyfish on the shelf could not be explained by any environmental variables investigated. As multi-decadal cycles and more recent increase in jellyfish were obvious in both oceanic and shelf areas, we conclude that these are likely to reflect an underlying climatic signal (and bottom-up control) rather than any change in fishing pressure (top-down control). Our results also highlight the role of the CPR data in investigating long-term changes in jellyfish, and suggest that the cnidarians sampled by the CPR are more likely to be holoplanktic hydrozoans and not the much larger meroplanktic scyphozoans as has been suggested previously.

Climate-induced effects on the meroplankton and the benthic-pelagic ecology of the North Sea

Analyses of long-term time series of North Sea plankton and sea surface temperature (SST) data reveal that the annual planktonic larval abundance of three benthic phyla, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Mollusca, responds positively and immediately to SST. Long-term outcomes for the planktonic abundance of these three phyla are different, however. The planktonic larvae of echinoderms and decapod crustaceans have increased in abundance from 1958 to 2005, and especially since the mid-1980s, as North Sea SST has increased. In contrast, the abundance of bivalve mollusc larvae has declined, despite the positive year-to-year relationship between temperature and bivalve larval abundance continuing to hold. We argue that the changes in meroplankton abundance, coincident with increased phytoplankton and declining holoplankton, reflect the synchronous effect of rising SST and related changes in the pelagic community on the reproduction and recruitment of many benthic marine invertebrates. Under this scenario, the long-term decline in bivalve mollusc larvae will reflect increased predation on the settled larvae and adults by benthic decapods. These alterations in the zooplankton may therefore describe an ecosystem-wide restructuring of North Sea trophic interactions.

Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere.

Global synchrony of an accelerating risein sea surface temperature

The oceans have shown a recent rapid and accelerating rise in temperature with, given the close link between temperature and marine organisms, pronounced effects on ecosystems. Here we describe for the first time a globally synchronous pattern of pulsed short period (�1 year long) emanations of warm sea surface temperature anomalies from tropical seas towards the poles on the shelf/slope with an intensification of the warming after the 1976/1977, 1986/1987 and 1997/1998 El Nin˜os. On the eastern margins of continents the anomalies propagate towards the poles in part by largely baroclinic boundary currents, reinforced by regional atmospheric warming. The processes contributing to the less continuous warm anomalies on western margins are linked to the transfer of warmth from adjacent western boundary currents. These climate induced events show a close parallelism with the timing of ecosystem changes in shelf seas, important for fisheries and ecosystem services, and melting of sea-ice.