Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Diverse profiles of N‐acyl‐homoserine lactone molecules found in cnidarians

Many marine habitats, such as the surface and tissues of marine invertebrates, including corals, harbour diverse populations of microorganisms, which are thought to play a role in the health of their hosts and influence mutualistic and competitive interactions. Investigating the presence and stability of quorum sensing (QS) in these ecosystems may shed light on the roles and control of these bacterial communities. Samples of 13 cnidarian species were screened for the presence and diversity of N-acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs; a prevalent type of QS molecule) using thin-layer chromatography and an Agrobacterium tumefaciens NTL4 biosensor. Ten of 13 were found to harbour species-specific, conserved AHL profiles. AHLs were confirmed in Anemonia viridis using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. To assess temporal role and stability, AHLs were investigated in A. viridis from intertidal pools over 16 h. Patterns of AHLs showed conserved profiles except for two mid-chain length AHLs, which increased significantly over the day, peaking at 20:00, but had no correlation with pool chemistry. Denaturing gel electrophoresis of RT-PCR-amplified bacterial 16S rRNA showed the presence of an active bacterial community that changed in composition alongside AHL profiles and contained a number of bands that affiliate with known AHL-producing bacteria. Investigations into the quorum sensing-controlled, species-specific roles of these bacterial communities and how these regulatory circuits are influenced by the coral host and members of the bacterial community are imperative to expand our knowledge of these interactions with respect to the maintenance of coral health.

Analytical phytoplankton carbon measurements spanning diverse ecosystems

The measurement of phytoplankton carbon (Cphyto) in the field has been a long-sought but elusive goal in oceanography. Proxy measurements of Cphyto have been employed in the past, but are subject to many confounding influences that undermine their accuracy. Here we report the first directly measured Cphyto values from the open ocean. The Cphyto samples were collected from a diversity of environments, ranging from Pacific and Atlantic oligotrophic gyres to equatorial upwelling systems to temperate spring conditions. When compared to earlier proxies, direct measurements of Cphyto exhibit the strongest relationship with particulate backscattering coefficients (bbp) (R2=0.69). Chlorophyll concentration and total particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration accounted for ~20% less variability in Cphyto than bbp. Ratios of Cphyto to Chl a span an order of magnitude moving across and within distinct ecosystems. Similarly, Cphyto:POC ratios were variable with the lowest values coming from productive temperate waters and the highest from oligotrophic gyres. A strong relationship between Cphyto and bbp is particularly significant because bbp is a property retrievable from satellite ocean color measurements. Our results, therefore, are highly encouraging for the global monitoring of phytoplankton biomass from space. The continued application of our Cphyto measurement approach will enable validation of satellite retrievals and contribute to an improved understanding of environmental controls on phytoplankton biomass and physiology.