Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Comparative analysis European wide marine ecosystem shifts - a large scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades, some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations such as the NAO.

Ranking of length-class seasonal and regional effects on dietary compositions of the co-occurring Pagrus auratus (Sparidae) and Pseudocaranx georgianus (Carangidae)

Using an effective combination of multivariate testing and ordination analyses, this study compares the extents to which the diets of two co-occurring fish species (Pagrus auratus and Pseudocaranx georgianus) are related to body size (length class), season and region and the rank order importance of those effects. Thus, volumetric dietary compositions were determined for these species on the lower west coast of Australia, where both are abundant, and for P. auratus from the mid west coast and P. georgianus from the south coast. The diet of P. auratus on the lower west coast was strongly related to body size and slightly less to season. With increasing body size, its diet shifted from predominantly ophiuroids to larger prey, such as brachyuran crabs, teleosts, echinoids and ultimately asteroids, probably reflecting a shift from foraging over soft sediments to areas over and around reefs. Seasonal changes on the lower west coast were restricted mainly to small P. auratus, while larger fish underwent seasonal changes further north. Analyses using a common size range of medium to larger P. auratus demonstrated that dietary composition differed more between regions than seasons. The relationships between diet and length class of P. georgianus on both the lower west and south coasts were less pronounced than for P. auratus and seasonal changes were restricted to the south coast, where amphipod consumption increased markedly in summer. The diet of P. georgianus was related far more to region than length class and season, with more small teleosts, small crabs, carideans and littorinids and less amphipods, isopods and small bivalves being ingested on the lower west than south coasts. Although crabs and teleosts were important typifying prey of P. auratus and P. georgianus, when co-occurring, the former predator tended to ingest greater volumes of larger and often less mobile prey. This reflects differences in dentition, jaw morphology and feeding behaviour and reduces the potential for competition for food resources. The results imply that P. auratus and P. georgianus are opportunistic feeders and that the effects of length class, season and region on dietary composition and their rank orders can vary markedly between species and for length class and season between regions for the same species.

On the Front Line: frontal zones as priority at-sea conservation areas for mobile marine vertebrates

1.Identifying priority areas for marine vertebrate conservation is complex because species of conservation concern are highly mobile, inhabit dynamic habitats and are difficult to monitor. 2.Many marine vertebrates are known to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transition between water masses – for foraging and migration, making them important candidate sites for conservation. Here, we review associations between marine vertebrates and fronts and how they vary with scale, regional oceanography and foraging ecology. 3.Accessibility, spatiotemporal predictability and relative productivity of front-associated foraging habitats are key aspects of their ecological importance. Predictable mesoscale (10s–100s km) regions of persistent frontal activity (‘frontal zones’) are particularly significant. 4.Frontal zones are hotspots of overlap between critical habitat and spatially explicit anthropogenic threats, such as the concentration of fisheries activity. As such, they represent tractable conservation units, in which to target measures for threat mitigation. 5.Front mapping via Earth observation (EO) remote sensing facilitates identification and monitoring of these hotspots of vulnerability. Seasonal or climatological products can locate biophysical hotspots, while near-real-time front mapping augments the suite of tools supporting spatially dynamic ocean management. 6.Synthesis and applications. Frontal zones are ecologically important for mobile marine vertebrates. We surmise that relative accessibility, predictability and productivity are key biophysical characteristics of ecologically significant frontal zones in contrasting oceanographic regions. Persistent frontal zones are potential priority conservation areas for multiple marine vertebrate taxa and are easily identifiable through front mapping via EO remote sensing. These insights are useful for marine spatial planning and marine biodiversity conservation, both within Exclusive Economic Zones and in the open oceans.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.