Reply to Haddock, S. H. D. Reconsidering evidence for potential climate-related increases in jellyfish

Following the publication of our paper (Attrill et al. 2007), we became quickly aware of a couple of errors. We have subsequently been collaborating with Dr. Chris Lynam (Lynam et al. 2004, 2005) to bring together our two datasets, explore the common patterns within our data, and attempt to provide a consensus on how climate is affecting gelatinous plankton in the North Sea. During this reanalysis, two errors within the data were discovered, one involving a transcription error of a column of residuals during de-trended analysis, the other a major data entry error deep in the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) database for sector B2. Here we present a revised version of table 1 from Attrill et al. (2007) to incorporate corrections to these transcription and data entry errors. These corrections alter some of the results in our original data table, mainly to increase and strengthen the number of significant relations we found (e.g., for sector B2 and whole sea area); all previous main results remain robustly significant. Following discussions with Dr. Lynam, two clarifications of statements made in Attrill et al. (2007) are also required. Page 482, Results, last line of first column: ‘‘There were no...robust, consistent relations between jellyfish frequency and any environmental variables for B and D… contrary to the findings of previous shorter time series (Lynam et al. 2005).’’ The Lynam et al. (2004, 2005) papers presented no data for the D sector and found no link in the B sector, contrary to our revised results. Page 482, Discussion, paragraph 1, last sentence: ‘‘… positive association … North of Scotland (Lynam et al. 2005) … does not appear to be maintained.’’ Our paper did not report on any data that covered Lynam et al.’s (2005) North of Scotland area so the statement is not directly supported, although their positive relation North of Scotland, when considered in conjunction with inflow, may agree with the C2 and B2 results of Attrill et al. (2007).

Variation among northeast Atlantic regions in the responses of zooplankton to climate change: Not all areas follow the same path

Broad scale climate forcing can interact with local environmental processes to affect the observed ecological phenomena. This causes potential problems of over-extrapolation for results from a limited number of sites or the averaging out of region-specific responses if data from too wide an area are combined. In this study, an area similar in extent to the Celtic Biscay Large Marine Ecosystem, but including off-shelf areas, was partitioned using clustering of satellite chlorophyll (chl-a) measurements. The resulting clusters were used to define areas over which to combine copepod data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Following filtering due to data limitations, nine regions were defined with sufficient records for analysis. These regions were consistent with known oceanographic structure in the study area. Off-shelf regions showed a progressively later timing in the seasonal peak of chl-a measurements moving northwards. Generalised additive models were used to estimate seasonal and multiannual signals in the adult and juvenile stages of Calanus finmarchicus, C. helgolandicus and the Paracalanus–Pseudocalanus group. Associations between variables (sea surface temperature (SST), phenology and annual abundance) differed among taxonomic groups, but even within taxonomic groups, relationships were not consistent across regions. For example, in the deep waters off Spain and Portugal the annual abundance of Calanus finmarchicus has a weak positive association with SST, in contrast to the pattern in most other regions. The regions defined in this study provide an objective basis for investigations into the long term dynamics of plankton populations and suggest suitable sub regions for deriving pelagic system indicators.