Update on the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Calanus finmarchicus

The relationship between climate, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the calanoid copepod Calanus finmarchicus has been extensively studied. The correlation between NAO and C. finmarchicus has broken down (post-1995). In the present study, we revisit the relationship between C. finmarchicus and the NAO. Our reanalysis shows that previous treatment of this data did not take into account 2 aspects of both the C. finmarchicus and NAO index time-series: (1) the presence of significant trends and (2) significant autocorrelation. Our analysis suggests that previously reported relationships between NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance can be explained largely by the trends in both data series. Removing the trend from both time-series resulted in a decrease in the amount of C. finmarchicus abundance variability explained by the NAO. Trend removal eliminated the autocorrelation from the NAO time-series, but not from the C. finmarchicus time-series. Partial autocorrelation analysis showed that the autocorrelation present in the C. finmarchicus time-series is only found at a lag of 1 yr, suggesting strong, year-to-year connectivity in this population. We included the lagged C. finmarchicus abundance into a regression with the NAO and found that C. finmarchicus variability is explained by the previous year’s abundance and, to a much smaller extent, by NAO variability. Limiting the time-series to the most recent 22 yr period (1981 to 2002) showed that the NAO is no longer correlated to C. finmarchicus abundance, and the autocorrelation in the C. finmarchicus abundance series also appears to be weakening.

The Russell Cycle. An update and review of trends in zooplankton and fish larvae off Plymouth 1924-2009. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 24

Regular plankton sampling off Plymouth by the Marine Biological Association (MBA) has been carried out from the early 1900s. Much of the sample analysis and description of the results was carried out by Sir Frederick Russell and Professor Alan Southward (AJS), the latter having completed the organisation and transfer of the paper records to digital files. The current authors have transferred the main data files of AJS on zooplankton and fish larvae to the MBA long-term database (including various editing and checking against original analysis records and published data) together with adding the data for 2002-2009. In this report the updated time-series are reviewed in the context of earlier work, particularly with respect to the Russell Cycle. It is not intended as an exhaustive analysis. Brief details of the sampling and comments on data processing are given in an appendix.