2 resultados para optimal estimating equations

em Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)


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The oceanographic drivers of marine vertebrate habitat use are poorly understood yet fundamental to our knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Here, we use composite front mapping and high-resolution GPS tracking to determine the significance of mesoscale oceanographic fronts as physical drivers of foraging habitat selection in northern gannets Morus bassanus. We tracked 66 breeding gannets from a Celtic Sea colony over 2 years and used residence time to identify area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Composite front maps identified thermal and chlorophyll-a mesoscale fronts at two different temporal scales—(i) contemporaneous fronts and (ii) seasonally persistent frontal zones. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), with generalized estimating equations (GEE-GAMs) to account for serial autocorrelation in tracking data, we found that gannets do not adjust their behaviour in response to contemporaneous fronts. However, ARS was more likely to occur within spatially predictable, seasonally persistent frontal zones (GAMs). Our results provide proof of concept that composite front mapping is a useful tool for studying the influence of oceanographic features on animal movements. Moreover, we highlight that frontal persistence is a crucial element of the formation of pelagic foraging hotspots for mobile marine vertebrates.

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The variable start and duration of the Grey seal breeding season makes the estimation of total pup production from a single census very difficult. Classifying the count into morphological age classes enables the form and timing of the birth rate curve and estimates of pup mortality rates to be elucidated. A simulation technique is described which enables the duration of each morphological stage to be determined from a series of such classified counts taken over one season. A further statistical technique uses these estimates to calculate the mean timing and duration of the breeding season from a single classified count taken from similar populations in subsequent years. This information allows total pup production to be calculated for any appropriate breeding colony. Some guidance is given as to the optimal timing of that single census which would yield the best estimate of production, although the precise date is not critical to the success of the technique. Results from single census estimates obtained in this way are compared with known production data from more detailed surveys for a number of different colonies.