Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Effect of ocean acidification and elevated fCO2 on trace gas production by a Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton community

The Baltic Sea is a unique environment as the largest body of brackish water in the world. Acidification of the surface oceans due to absorption of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is an additional stressor facing the pelagic community of the already challenging Baltic Sea. To investigate its impact on trace gas biogeochemistry, a large-scale mesocosm experiment was performed off Tvärminne Research Station, Finland in summer 2012. During the second half of the experiment, dimethylsulphide (DMS) concentrations in the highest fCO2 mesocosms (1075–1333 μatm) were 34 % lower than at ambient CO2 (350 μatm). However the net production (as measured by concentration change) of seven halocarbons analysed was not significantly affected by even the highest CO2 levels after 5 weeks exposure. Methyl iodide (CH3I) and diiodomethane (CH2I2) showed 15 % and 57 % increases in mean mesocosm concentration (3.8 ± 0.6 pmol L−1 increasing to 4.3 ± 0.4 pmol L−1 and 87.4 ± 14.9 pmol L−1 increasing to 134.4 ± 24.1 pmol L−1 respectively) during Phase II of the experiment, which were unrelated to CO2 and corresponded to 30 % lower Chl-ɑ concentrations compared to Phase I. No other iodocarbons increased or showed a peak, with mean chloroiodomethane (CH2ClI) concentrations measured at 5.3 (± 0.9) pmol L−1 and iodoethane (C2H5I) at 0.5 (± 0.1) pmol L−1. Of the concentrations of bromoform (CHBr3; mean 88.1 ± 13.2 pmol L−1), dibromomethane (CH2Br2; mean 5.3 ± 0.8 pmol L−1) and dibromochloromethane (CHBr2Cl, mean 3.0 ± 0.5 pmol L−1), only CH2Br2 showed a decrease of 17 % between Phases I and II, with CHBr3 and CHBr2Cl showing similar mean concentrations in both Phases. Outside the mesocosms, an upwelling event was responsible for bringing colder, high CO2, low pH water to the surface starting on day t16 of the experiment; this variable CO2 system with frequent upwelling events implies the community of the Baltic Sea is acclimated to regular significant declines in pH caused by up to 800 μatm fCO2. After this upwelling, DMS concentrations declined, but halocarbon concentrations remained similar or increased compared to measurements prior to the change in conditions. Based on our findings, with future acidification of Baltic Sea waters, biogenic halocarbon emissions are likely to remain at similar values to today, however emissions of biogenic sulphur could significantly decrease from this region.