Modelling a light-driven phytoplankton succession

We used a numerical model to investigate if and to what extent cellular photoprotective capacity accounts for succession and vertical distribution of marine phytoplankton species/groups. A model describing xanthophyll photoprotective activity in phytoplankton has been implemented in the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model and applied at the station L4 in the Western English Channel. Primary producers were subdivided into three phytoplankton functional types defined in terms of their capacity to acclimate to different light-specific environments: low light (LL-type), high light (HL-type) and variable light (VL-type) adapted species. The LL-type is assumed to have low cellular level of xanthophyll-cycling pigments (PX) relative to the modelled photosynthetically active pigments (chlorophyll and fucoxanthin (FUCO) = PSP). The HL-type has high PX content relative to PSP while VL-type presents an intermediate PX to PSP ratio. Furthermore, the VL-type is capable of reversibly converting FUCO to PX and synthesizing new PX under high-light stress. In order to reproduce phytoplankton community succession with each of the three groups being dominant in different periods of the year, we had also to assume reduced grazing pressure on HL-adapted species. Model simulations realistically reproduce the observed seasonal patterns of pigments and nutrients highlighting the reasonability of the underpinning assumptions. Our model suggests that pigment-mediated photophysiology plays a primary role in determining the evolution of marine phytoplankton communities in the winter-spring period corresponding to the shoaling of the mixed layer and the increase of light intensity. Grazing selectivity however contributes to the phytoplankton community composition in summer.

Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Effect of phytoplankton size classes on bio-optical properties of phytoplankton in the Western Iberian coast: Application of models

Chlorophyll-a satellite products are routinely used in oceanography, providing a synoptic and global view of phytoplankton abundance. However, these products lack information on the community structure of the phytoplankton, which is crucial for ecological modelling and ecosystem studies. To assess the usefulness of existing methods to differentiate phytoplankton functional types (PFT) or phytoplankton size classes from satellite data, in-situ phytoplankton samples collected in the Western Iberian coast, on the North-East Atlantic, were analysed for pigments and absorption spectra. Water samples were collected in five different locations, four of which were located near the shore and another in an open-ocean, seamount region. Three different modelling approaches for deriving phytoplankton size classes were applied to the in situ data. Approaches tested provide phytoplankton size class information based on the input of pigments data (Brewin et al., 2010), absorption spectra data (Ciotti et al., 2002) or both (Uitz et al., 2008). Following Uitz et al. (2008), results revealed high variability in microphytoplankton chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficients, ranging from 0.01 to 0.09 m2 (mg chl)− 1 between 400 and 500 nm. This spectral analysis suggested, in one of the regions, the existence of small cells (< 20 μm) in the fraction of phytoplankton presumed to be microphytoplankton (based on diagnostic pigments). Ciotti et al. (2002) approach yielded the highest differences between modelled and measured absorption spectra for the locations where samples had high variability in community structure and cell size. The Brewin et al. (2010) pigment-based model was adjusted and a set of model coefficients are presented and recommended for future studies in offshore water of the Western Iberian coast.

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.