Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

Loadings of dissolved organic matter and nutrients from the Neva River into the Gulf of Finland – Biogeochemical composition and spatial distribution within the salinity gradient

We studied the loadings of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and nutrients from the Neva River into the Eastern Gulf of Finland, as well as their distribution within the salinity gradient. Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ranged from 390 to 840 μM, and were related to absorption of colored DOM (CDOM) at 350 nm, aCDOM(350), ranging from 2.70 to 17.8 m-1. With increasing salinity both DOC and aCDOM decreased, whereas the slope of aCDOM spectra, SCDOM(300-700), ranging from 14.3 to 21.2 μm-1, increased with salinity.

Loadings of dissolved organic matter and nutrients from the Neva River into the Gulf of Finland – Biogeochemical composition and spatial distribution within the salinity gradient

We studied the loadings of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and nutrients from the Neva River into the Eastern Gulf of Finland, as well as their distribution within the salinity gradient. Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ranged from 390 to 840 μM, and were related to absorption of colored DOM (CDOM) at 350 nm, aCDOM(350), ranging from 2.70 to 17.8 m-1. With increasing salinity both DOC and aCDOM decreased, whereas the slope of aCDOM spectra, SCDOM(300-700), ranging from 14.3 to 21.2 μm-1, increased with salinity.

Acoustic telemetry and network analysis reveal the space use of multiple reef predators and enhance marine protected area design

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are commonly employed to protect ecosystems from threats like overfishing. Ideally, MPA design should incorporate movement data from multiple target species to ensure sufficient habitat is protected. We used long-term acoustic telemetry and network analysis to determine the fine-scale space use of five shark and one turtle species at a remote atoll in the Seychelles, Indian Ocean, and evaluate the efficacy of a proposed MPA. Results revealed strong, species-specific habitat use in both sharks and turtles, with corresponding variation in MPA use. Defining the MPA's boundary from the edge of the reef flat at low tide instead of the beach at high tide (the current best in Seychelles) significantly increased the MPA's coverage of predator movements by an average of 34%. Informed by these results, the larger MPA was adopted by the Seychelles government, demonstrating how telemetry data can improve shark spatial conservation by affecting policy directly.