Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton. The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.

Pulses in the eastern margin current and warmer water off the north west European shelf linked to North Sea ecosystem changes

The North Sea ecosystem has recently undergone dramatic changes, observed as altered biomass of individual species spanning a range of life forms from algae to birds, with evidence for an approximate doubling in the abundance of both phytoplankton and benthos as part of a regime shift after 1987. Remarkably, these changes, in part recorded in the Phytoplankton Colour Index of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are notable as episodic shifts occurring in 1988/89 and 1998 imposed on a gradual decadal trend. These biological events are shown to be a response to coincident changes in oceanic input and water temperature. Geostrophic transports have been calculated from a hydrographic section across the Rockall Trough, and a time series of seasurface temperature derived from satellite observations. The 2 pulses of oceanic incursion into the North Sea in circa 1988 and 1998 coincided with strong northward advection of anomalously warm water at the edge of the continental shelf.

Impacts of fisheries on plankton community structure

There has been much debate on the extent to which resource availability (bottom-up) versus predation pressure from fish (top-down) modulates the dynamics of plankton in marine systems. Physico/chemical bottom-up forcing has been considered to be the main mechanism structuring marine ecosystems, although some field observations and empirical correlations support top-down modulation. Models have indicated possible feedback loops to the plankton and other studies have interpreted a grazing impact from long-term changes in fish stocks. In freshwater systems, evidence for top-down forcing by fish and trophic cascading is well documented. First, evidence for equivalent top-down effects in the marine environment is presented, with an overview of relevant publications. In the second part, time series, averaged for the North Sea (when possible from 1948 to 1997), of fish catch, recruitment, and spawning stock biomass are related to the abundance of species or larger groupings of zooplankton and phytoplankton from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and selected environmental parameters. Preliminary analysis suggests that there is strong interaction between different fish species and the plankton and that the fishery, through top-down control, may at times be an important contributor to changes in the North Sea ecosystem.

North Sea Ecosystem: Status Report

The North Sea is a dynamic large marine ecosystem which is bordered by a dense coastal population, contains a productive oil and gas province, has a dense shipping network and has one of the most productive fisheries in the world. An assessment of the state of health of the North Sea was initiated in 1987 as part of a developing series of international initiatives at Ministerial level to address concerns over the impact of these activities on the marine ecosystem. Four North Sea Ministerial Conferences (1984, 1987, 1990, 1995) and an Intermediate Ministerial Meeting (1993) have been held to date to develop a harmonized approach to the sustainable management of the North Sea. In 1988 at the request of Ministers a North Sea Task Force was established to co-ordinate work leading to the production of a Quality Status Report (QSR) on the North Sea in December 1993. In recognition of the large geographical and ecological diversity exhibited, a sub-regional approach was adopted and a total of 13 sub-regional assessment reports were produced to a common protocol. The Task Force established a five-year plan to co-ordinate research, monitoring and modelling and other special topics in the preparations for the QSR. As part of this exercise a ‘Monitoring Master Plan’ was drawn up to provide for the first time reliable spatial information on the distribution of chemical contaminants and biological effects throughout the North Sea. The Task Force was a unique structure in international collaboration with a fixed remit that ended in December 1993. It was successful in bringing together many diverse organisations with interests in the North Sea and co-ordinated to a tight timetable the production of the QSR. The experiences gained are now being applied to the whole north east Atlantic under a new OSPAR Convention and have wide application to other Large Marine Ecosystems.