Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

Horizontal and vertical distribution of cirripede cyprid larvae in an upwelling system off the Portuguese coast

The distribution of cirripede cyprids in relation to associated oceanographic conditions was obtained from a grid survey and intensive vertical sampling at a fixed station located 21 km off the northwest Portuguese coast in May 2002. Analysis of cyprid length composition allowed separation of 3 species groups. Chthamalus montagui, Pollicipes pollicipes and Balanus perforatus were largely restricted to the neuston layer and showed only low-amplitude vertical migration. Most C. stellatus cyprids only appeared in the upper 20 m at night, a migration which did not appear to be affected by physical conditions in the water column, but some differences in the vertical migration pattern between days were probably related to varying light penetration. C. montagui is the most abundant adult species found along the Portuguese coast, but C. stellatus cyprids, at densities of up to 8.7 ind. m–3, were the most common sampled in all depth strata at the fixed station. Cyprid horizontal distribution was mainly restricted to an offshore band along the inner shelf, where highest densities were 11 to 15 ind. m–3. This distribution pattern was considered to result from upwelling-favourable wind conditions, creating fronts along the shelf in which the cyprids become concentrated. Cyprid vertical migration, in association with current vertical shear and onshore movement of fronts during upwelling-relaxation periods, may be the mechanisms returning cyprids to the coast to settle. The regularity of these events in the region falls within the period of cyprid viability.