Responses in Arctic marine carbon cycle processes: conceptual scenarios & implications for ecosystem.

The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006): inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.

Use of satellite data for modelling food availability and survival of marine fish larvae

A modelling scheme is described which uses satellite retrieved sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll-a to derive monthly zooplankton biomass estimates in the eastern North Atlantic; this forms part of a bio-physical model of inter-annual variations in the growth and survival of larvae and post-larvae of mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The temperature and chlorophyll data are incorporated first to model copepod (Calanus) egg production rates. Egg production is then converted to available food using distribution data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, observed population biomass per unit daily egg production and the proportion of the larval mackerel diet comprising Calanus. Results are validated in comparison with field observations of zooplankton biomass. The principal benefit of the modelling scheme is the ability to use the combination of broad scale coverage and fine scale temporal and spatial variability of satellite data as driving forces in the model; weaknesses are the simplicity of the egg production model and the broad-scale generalizations assumed in the raising factors to convert egg production to biomass.

Acquisition of continuous plankton recorder data

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been deployed on a seasonal basis in the north Pacific since 2000, accumulating a database of abundance measurements for over 290 planktonic taxa in over 3,500 processed samples. There is an additional archive of over 10,000 samples available for further analyses. Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council financial support has contributed to about half of this tally, through four projects funded since 2002. Time series of zooplankton variables for sub-regions of the survey area are presented together with abstracts of eight papers published using data from these projects. The time series covers a period when the dominant climate signal in the north Pacific, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), switched with unusual frequency between warm/positive states (pre-1999 and 2003-2006) and cool/negative states (1999-2002 and 2007). The CPR data suggest that cool negative years show higher biomass on the shelf and lower biomass in the open ocean, while the reverse is true in warm (PDO positive) years with lower shelf biomass (except 2005) and higher oceanic biomass. In addition, there was a delay in plankton increase on the Alaskan shelf in the colder spring of 2007, compared to the warmer springs of the preceding years. In warm years, smaller species of copepods which lack lipid reserves are also more common. Availability of the zooplankton prey to higher trophic levels (including those that society values highly) is therefore dependent on the timing of increase and peak abundance, ease of capture and nutritional value. Previously published studies using these data highlight the wide-ranging applicability of CPR data and include collaborative studies on; phenology in the key copepod species Neocalanus plumchrus, descriptions of distributions of decapod larvae and euphausiid species, the effects of hydrographic features such as mesoscale eddies and the North Pacific Current on plankton populations and a molecularbased investigation of macro-scale population structure in N. cristatus. The future funding situation is uncertain but the value of the data and studies so far accumulated is considerable and sets a strong foundation for further studies on plankton dynamics and interactions with higher trophic levels in the northern Gulf of Alaska.

Empirically modelling the potential effects of changes in temperature and prey availability on the growth of cod larvae in UK shelf seas

It has been hypothesized that changes in zooplankton community structure over the past four decades led to reduced growth and survival of prerecruit Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and that this was a key factor underlying poor year classes, contributing to stock collapse, and inhibiting the recovery of stocks around the UK. To evaluate whether observed changes in plankton abundance, species composition and temperature could have led to periods of poorer growth of cod larvae, we explored the effect of prey availability and temperature on early larval growth using an empirical trophodynamic model. Prey availability was parameterized using species abundance data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Our model suggests that the observed changes in plankton community structure in the North Sea may have had less impact on cod larval growth, at least for the first 40 days following hatching, than previously suggested. At least in the short term, environmental and prey conditions should be able to sustain growth of cod larvae and environmental changes acting on this early life stage should not limit stock recovery.

Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset on fish larvae has an extensive spatio-temporal coverage that allows the responses of fish populations to past changes in climate variability, including abrupt changes such as regime shifts, to be investigated. The newly available dataset offers a unique opportunity to investigate long-term changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors. A principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters is applied to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the North Sea on 5 selected taxa of fish larvae during the period 1960 to 2004. The analysis revealed 4 periods of time (1960–1976; 1977–1982; 1983–1996; 1997–2004) reflecting 3 different ecosystem states. The larvae of clupeids, sandeels, dab and gadoids seemed to be affected mainly by changes in the plankton ecosystem, while the larvae of migratory species such as Atlantic mackerel responded more to hydrographic changes. Climate variability seems more likely to influence fish populations through bottom-up control via a cascading effect from changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impacting on the hydro dynamic features of the North Sea, in turn impacting on the plankton available as prey for fish larvae. The responses and adaptability of fish larvae to changing environmental conditions, parti cularly to changes in prey availability, are complex and species-specific. This complexity is enhanced with fishing effects interacting with climate effects and this study supports furthering our under - standing of such interactions before attempting to predict how fish populations respond to climate variability