Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Structure of phytoplankton (Continuous Plankton Recorder and SeaWiFS) and impact of climate in the Northwest Atlantic Shelves

All marine organisms are affected to some extent by the movement and thermal properties of oceanic currents. However phytoplankton, because of its small size is most directly coupled to the physical environment. The intense hydrodynamic activity observed in the Northwest Atlantic Shelves Province makes this region especially intriguing from the point of view of physical-biological interactions. In the present work, remote sensed data of Sea Surface Height (SSH) anomalies, Sea-surface chlorophyll a concentrations (SeaWiFS), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are used to complement the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey that continuously sampled a route between Norfolk (Virginia, USA; 39° N, 71° W) and Argentia (Newfoundland; 47° N, 54° W) over the period 1995–1998. Over this period, we examined physical structures (i.e. SST and SSH) and climatic forcing associated with space-time phytoplankton structure. Along this route, the phytoplankton structures were mainly impacted by the changes in surface flow along the Scotian Shelf rather than significantly influenced by the mesoscale features of the Gulf Stream. These changes in water mass circulation caused a drop in temperature and salinity along the Scotian Shelf that induced changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance.

Continuous Plankton Records - Seasonal-Variations In The Distribution And Abundance Of Plankton In The North-Atlantic Ocean And The North-Sea

Charts are presented of the seasonal variations in the distribution of four phytoplankton and five zooplankton taxa in the North Atlantic and the North Sea. The main factors determining the seasonal variations appear to be the distribution of the main overwintering stocks, the current system and, in some instances, temperature control of the rate of population increase. Information is presented about the variation with latitude (over the range from 34° N to 65 ° N) of the seasonal regime of the plankton. On the assumption that there is a relationship between nutrient supply and vertical temperature stratification the main features of this variability can be interpreted. In the south (to about 43° N) nutrient limitation plus grazing appear to be dominant, resulting in a bimodal seasonal cycle of phytoplankton. North of about 60° N the system appears to be limited by the size of the phytoplankton stocks being grazed primarily by Calanus Finmarchicus and Euphausiacea. In an extensive zone, from about 44° N to 60° N, it would appear that the spring bloom of phytoplankton is under-exploited by grazing while in summer the zooplankton graze the daily production of the phytoplankton, the stocks of which are probably maintained by in situ nutrient regeneration. The implications, for at least this mid-latitude zone, that rates and fluxes of processes, as opposed to density dependent interactions between stocks, play a major role in the dynamics of the seasonal cycle is consistent with previously reported observations suggesting that physical environmental factors play a major role in determining year-to-year fluctuations in the abundance of the plankton.

Trophodynamics and stability of regional scale ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic

This study addresses the long-term stability of three trophic groupings in the Northeast Atlantic at regional scales. The most abundant taxa representing phytoplankton, herbivorous copepods, and carnivorous zooplankton were examined from the Continuous Plankton Recorder database. Multivariate control charts using a Bray–Curtis similarity metric were used to assess whether fluctuations within trophic groupings were within or beyond the expected variability. Two evaluation periods were examined: annual changes between 1960 and 1999 (2000–2009 baseline) and recent changes between 2000 and 2009 (1960–1999 baseline). The trends over time in abundance/biomass of trophic levels were region-specific, especially in carnivorous copepods, where abundance did not mirror trends in the overall study area. The stability of phytoplankton was within the expected limits, although not in 2008 and 2009. Higher trophic levels were less stable, perhaps reflecting the added complexity of interactions governing their abundance. In addition, some regions were consistently less stable than others. Correlations in stability between adjacent trophic levels were positive at large marine ecosystem scale but generally non-significant at regional scales. The study suggests that certain regions may be particularly vulnerable to periods of instability in community structure. The benefits of using the control chart method rather than other multivariate measures of plankton dynamics are discussed.

The potential use of mapped extent and distribution of habitats as indicators of Good Environmental Status (GES)

The Healthy and Biologically Diverse Seas Evidence Group (HBDSEG) has been tasked with providing the technical advice for the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with respect to descriptors linked to biodiversity. A workshop was held in London to address one of the Research and Development (R&D) proposals entitled: ‘Mapping the extent and distribution of habitats using acoustic and remote techniques, relevant to indicators for area/extent/habitat loss.’ The aim of the workshop was to identify, define and assess the feasibility of potential indicators of benthic habitat distribution and extent, and identify the R&D work which could be required to fully develop these indicators. The main points that came out of the workshop were: (i) There are many technical aspects of marine habitat mapping that still need to be resolved if cost-effective spatial indicators are to be developed. Many of the technical aspects that need addressing surround issues of consistency, confidence and repeatability. These areas should be tackled by the JNCC Habitat Mapping and Classification Working Group and the HBDSEG Seabed Mapping Working Group. (ii) There is a need for benthic ecologists (through the HBDSEG Benthic Habitats Subgroup and the JNCC Marine Indicators Group) to finalise the list of habitats for which extent and/or distribution indicators should be considered for development, building upon the recommendations from this report. When reviewing the list of indicators, benthic habitats could also be distinguished into those habitats that are defined/determined primarily by physical parameters (although including biological assemblages) (e.g. subtidal shallow sand) and those defined primarily by their biological assemblage (e.g. seagrass beds). This distinction is important as some anthropogenic pressures may influence the biological component of the ecosystem despite not having a quantifiable effect on the physical habitat distribution/extent. (iii) The scale and variety of UK benthic habitats makes any attempt to undertake comprehensive direct mapping exercises prohibitively expensive (especially where there is a need for repeat surveys for assessment). There is a clear need therefore to develop a risk-based approach that uses indirect indicators (e.g. modelling), such as habitats at risk from pressures caused by current human activities, to develop priorities for information gathering. The next steps that came out of the workshop were: (i) A combined approach should be developed by the JNCC Marine Indicators Group together with the HBDSEG Benthic Habitats Subgroup, which will compile and ultimately synthesise all the criteria used by the three different groups from the workshop. The agreed combined approach will be used to undertake a final review of the habitats considered during the workshop, and to evaluate any remaining habitats in order to produce a list of habitats for indicator development for which extent and/or distribution indicators could be appropriate. (ii) The points of advice raised at this workshop, alongside the combined approach aforementioned, and the final list of habitats for extent and/or distribution indicator development will be used to develop a prioritised list of actions to inform the next round of R&D proposals for benthic habitat indicator development in 2014. This will be done through technical discussions within JNCC and the relevant HBDSEG Subgroups. The preparation of recommendations by these groups should take into account existing work programmes, and consider the limited resources available to undertake any further R&D work.