How should sparse marine in situ measurements be compared to a continuous model: an example

This work demonstrates an example of the importance of an adequate method to sub-sample model results when comparing with in situ measurements. A test of model skill was performed by employing a point-to-point method to compare a multi-decadal hindcast against a sparse, unevenly distributed historic in situ dataset. The point-to-point method masked out all hindcast cells that did not have a corresponding in situ measurement in order to match each in situ measurement against its most similar cell from the model. The application of the point-to-point method showed that the model was successful at reproducing the inter-annual variability of the in situ datasets. Furthermore, this success was not immediately apparent when the measurements were aggregated to regional averages. Time series, data density and target diagrams were employed to illustrate the impact of switching from the regional average method to the point-to-point method. The comparison based on regional averages gave significantly different and sometimes contradicting results that could lead to erroneous conclusions on the model performance. Furthermore, the point-to-point technique is a more correct method to exploit sparse uneven in situ data while compensating for the variability of its sampling. We therefore recommend that researchers take into account for the limitations of the in situ datasets and process the model to resemble the data as much as possible.

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.

Continuous Plankton Recorder Database: evolution, current uses and future directions.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, operated by the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS), is the largest plankton monitoring programme in the world and has spanned >70 yr. The dataset contains information from ~200 000 samples, with over 2.3 million records of individual taxa. Here we outline the evolution of the CPR database through changes in technology, and how this has increased data access. Recent high-impact publications and the expanded role of CPR data in marine management demonstrate the usefulness of the dataset. We argue that solely supplying data to the research community is not sufficient in the current research climate; to promote wider use, additional tools need to be developed to provide visual representation and summary statistics. We outline 2 software visualisation tools, SAHFOS WinCPR and the digital CPR Atlas, which provide access to CPR data for both researchers and non-plankton specialists. We also describe future directions of the database, data policy and the development of visualisation tools. We believe that the approach at SAHFOS to increase data accessibility and provide new visualisation tools has enhanced awareness of the data and led to the financial security of the organisation; it also provides a good model of how long-term monitoring programmes can evolve to help secure their future.

Continuous Plankton Records - Persistence In Time-Series Of Annual Means Of Abundance Of Zooplankton

Time-series of annual means of abundance of zooplankton of the north-east Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea, for the period 1948 to 1977, show considerable associations between successive years. The seasonal dynamics of the stocks appear to be consistent with at least a proportion of this being due to inherent persistence from year-to-year. Experiments with a simple model suggest that the observed properties of the time-series cannot be reproduced as a response to simple random forcing. The extent of trends and long wavelength variations can be simulated by introducing fairly extensive persistence into the perturbations, but this underestimates the extent of shorter wavelength variability in the observed time-series. The effect of persistence is to increase the proportion of trend and long wavelength variability in time-series of annual means, but stocks can respond to short wavelength perturbations provided these have a clearly defined frequency.

Latitudinal phytoplankton distribution and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Aim Recent studies have suggested that global diatom distributions are not limited by dispersal, in the case of both extant species and fossil species, but rather that environmental filtering explains their spatial patterns. Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity provides a framework in which to test these alternatives. Our aim is to test whether the structure of marine phytoplankton (diatoms, dinoflagellates and coccolithophores) assemblages across the Atlantic agrees with neutral theory predictions. We asked: (1) whether intersite variance in phytoplankton diversity is explained predominantly by dispersal limitation or by environmental conditions; and (2) whether species abundance distributions are consistent with those expected by the neutral model. Location Meridional transect of the Atlantic (50 degrees N50 degrees S). Methods We estimated the relative contributions of environmental factors and geographic distance to phytoplankton composition using similarity matrices, Mantel tests and variation partitioning of the species composition based upon canonical ordination methods. We compared the species abundance distribution of phytoplankton with the neutral model using Etienne's maximum-likelihood inference method. Results Phytoplankton communities are slightly more determined by niche segregation (24%), than by dispersal limitation and ecological drift (17%). In 60% of communities, the assumption of neutrality in species' abundance distributions could not be rejected. In tropical zones, where oceanic gyres enclose large stable water masses, most communities showed low species immigration rates; in contrast, we infer that communities in temperate areas, out of oligotrophic gyres, have higher rates of species immigration. Conclusions Phytoplankton community structure is consistent with partial niche assembly and partial dispersal and drift assembly (neutral processes). The role of dispersal limitation is almost as important as habitat filtering, a fact that has been largely overlooked in previous studies. Furthermore, the polewards increase in immigration rates of species that we have discovered is probably caused by water mixing conditions and productivity.

Mechanisms of long-term decline in size of lesser sandeels in the North Sea explored using a growth and phenology model

The lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus is a key species in the North Sea ecosystem, transferring energy from planktonic producers to top predators. Previous studies have shown a long-term decline in the size of 0-group sandeels in the western North Sea, but they were unable to pinpoint the mechanism (later hatching, slower growth or changes in size-dependent mortality) or cause. To investigate the first 2 possibilities we combined 2 independent time series of sandeel size, namely data from chick-feeding Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica and from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), in a novel statistical model implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model estimated annual mean length on 1 July, as well as hatching date and growth rate for sandeels from 1973 to 2006. Mean length-at-date declined by 22% over this period, corresponding to a 60% decrease in energy content, with a sharper decline since 2002. Up to the mid-1990s, the decline was associated with a trend towards later hatching. Subsequently, hatching became earlier again, and the continued trend towards smaller size appears to have been driven by lower growth rates, particularly in the most recent years, although we could not rule out changes in size-dependent mortality. Our findings point to major changes in key aspects of sandeel life history, which we consider are most likely due to direct and indirect temperature-related changes over a range of biotic factors, including the seasonal distribution of copepods and intra- and inter-specific competition with planktivorous fish. The results have implications both for the many predators of sandeels and for age and size of maturation in this aggregation of North Sea sandeels.

A multicomponent model of phytoplankton size structure

Size-fractionated filtration (SFF) is a direct method for estimating pigment concentration in various size classes. It is also common practice to infer the size structure of phytoplankton communities from diagnostic pigments estimated by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). In this paper, the three-component model of Brewin et al. (2010) was fitted to coincident data from HPLC and from SFF collected along Atlantic Meridional Transect cruises. The model accounted for the variability in each data set, but the fitted model parameters differed for the two data sets. Both HPLC and SFF data supported the conceptual framework of the three-component model, which assumes that the chlorophyll concentration in small cells increases to an asymptotic maximum, beyond which further increase in chlorophyll is achieved by the addition of larger celled phytoplankton. The three-component model was extended to a multicomponent model of size structure using observed relationships between model parameters and assuming that the asymptotic concentration that can be reached by cells increased linearly with increase in the upper bound on the cell size. The multicomponent model was verified using independent SFF data for a variety of size fractions and found to perform well (0.628 ≤ r ≤ 0.989) lending support for the underlying assumptions. An advantage of the multicomponent model over the three-component model is that, for the same number of parameters, it can be applied to any size range in a continuous fashion. The multicomponent model provides a useful tool for studying the distribution of phytoplankton size structure at large scales.