Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Seasonal-Changes In The Physiology Reproductive Condition And Carbohydrate Content Of The Cockle Cardium (=Cerastoderma) Edule (Bivalvia Cardiidae)

Pronounced seasonal cycles in the rates of oxygen consumption and feeding were found for Cardium (=Cerastoderma) edule L. measured in the field under ambient conditions. The cockles had a maximum rate of oxygen consumption (0.89 ml O2 g-1 h-1) in April which declined to a minimum of 0.35 ml O2 g-1 h-1 in March. Their feeding rate was variable but had a maximum value (3.91 l g-1 h-1) in April and a minimum value (0.73 l g-1 h-1) in October. There was no apparent seasonal variation in absorption efficiency, with a mean value of 67.6%. Gametogenesis was initiated in January and the population reached a peak in reproductive condition in April/May, followed by a 3 month spawning period. Carbohydrate reserves were synthesised during spawning, and were then utilised during the winter and early spring. An adaptive function for a reduction in time spent feeding is postulated, and correlations between the rates of certain physiological processes and some exogenous and endogenous variables are discussed.

Relationship Between Infestation By Mytilicola-Intestinalis Steuer (Copepoda Cyclopoidea) And Condition Index Of Mytilus-Edulis In Southwest England

Seasonal cycles in the condition index of Mytilus edulis from three sites in southwest England are described. These are analysed in relation to host length, stage of gonad development and parasite burden by linear regression analysis. An effect on the condition index due to the presence of Mytilicola intestinalis can be detected only in the sublittoral mussels in those few winter months when the mean intensity of infestation is over about 25 parasites per host. In all cases studied, the magnitude of the effect due to variation in host length, stage of gonad development, seasonal cycles and environmental factors is greater than that due to parasitism.

Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification’s impacts

Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research.