Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Modeling marine ecosystem responses to global climate change: Where are we now and where should we be going?

Modeling of global climate change is moving from global circulation model (GCM)-type projections with coupled biogeochemical models to projections of ecological responses, including food web and upper trophic levels. Marine and coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change and also produce significant ecosystem services. The effects of global climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems involve a much wider array of effects than the usual temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation. This paper is an overview for a collection of 12 papers that examined various aspects of global climate change on marine ecosystems and comprise this special issue. We summarized the major features of the models and analyses in the papers to determine general patterns. A wide range of ecosystems were simulated using a diverse set of modeling approaches. Models were either 3-dimensional or used a few spatial boxes, and responses to global climate change were mostly expressed as changes from a baseline condition. Three issues were identified from the across-model comparison: (a) lack of standardization of climate change scenarios, (b) the prevalence of site-specific and even unique models for upper trophic levels, and (c) emphasis on hypothesis evaluation versus forecasting. We discuss why these issues are important as global climate change assessment continues to progress up the food chain, and, when possible, offer some initial steps for going forward.

Heavy metal accumulation reflecting natural sedimentary processes and anthropogenic activities in two contrasting coastal wetland ecosystems, eastern China

Due to the impacts of natural processes and anthropogenic activities, different coastal wetlands are faced with variable patterns of heavy metal contamination. It is important to quantify the contributions of pollutant sources, in order to adopt appropriate protection measures for local ecosystems. The aim of this research was to compare the heavy metal contamination patterns of two contrasting coastal wetlands in eastern China. In addition, the contributions from various metal sources were identified and quantified, and influencing factors, such as the role of the plant Spartina alterniflora, were evaluated. Materials and methods Sediment samples were taken from two coastal wetlands (plain-type tidal flat at the Rudong (RD) wetland vs embayment-type tidal flat at Luoyuan Bay (LY)) to measure the content of Al, Fe, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Mo, Ni, Sr, Zn, Pb, Cd, and As. Inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry, flame atomic absorption spectrometry, and atomic fluorescence spectrometry methods were used for metal detection. Meanwhile, the enrichment factor and geoaccumulation index were applied to assess the pollution level. Principle component analysis and receptor modeling were used to quantify the sources of heavy metals. Results and discussion Marked differences in metal distribution patterns between the two systems were present. Metal contents in LY were higher than those in RD, except for Sr and Mo. The growth status of S. alterniflora influenced metal accumulations in RD, i.e., heavy metals were more easily adsorbed in the sediment in the following sequence: Cu > Cd > Zn > Cr > Al > Pb ≥ Ni ≥ Co > Fe > Sr ≥ Mn > As > Mo as a result of the presence and size of the vegetation. However, this phenomenon was not observed in LY. A higher potential ecological risk was associated with LY, compared with RD, except for Mo. Based on a receptor model output, sedimentary heavy metal contents at RD were jointly influenced by natural sedimentary processes and anthropogenic activities, whereas they were dominated by anthropogenic activities at LY. Conclusions A combination of geochemical analysis and modeling approaches was used to quantify the different types of natural and anthropogenic contributions to heavy metal contamination, which is useful for pollution assessments. The application of this approach reveals that natural and anthropogenic processes have different influences on the delivery and retention of metals at the two contrasting coastal wetlands. In addition, the presence and size of S. alterniflora can influence the level of metal contamination in sedimentary environments.

Transdisciplinary Science: A Path to Understanding the Interactions Among Ocean Acidification, Ecosystems, and Society

The global nature of ocean acidification (OA) transcends habitats, ecosystems, regions, and science disciplines. The scientific community recognizes that the biggest challenge in improving understanding of how changing OA conditions affect ecosystems, and associated consequences for human society, requires integration of experimental, observational, and modeling approaches from many disciplines over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Such transdisciplinary science is the next step in providing relevant, meaningful results and optimal guidance to policymakers and coastal managers. We discuss the challenges associated with integrating ocean acidification science across funding agencies, institutions, disciplines, topical areas, and regions, and the value of unifying science objectives and activities to deliver insights into local, regional, and global scale impacts. We identify guiding principles and strategies for developing transdisciplinary research in the ocean acidification science community.

Sun glint estimation in marine satellite images: a comparison of results from calculation and radiative transfer modeling

The intensity and location of Sun glint in two Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) images was modeled using a radiative transfer model that includes elevation features as well as the slope of the sea surface. The results are compared to estimates made using glint flagging and correction approaches used within standard atmospheric correction processing code. The model estimate gives a glint pattern with a similar width but lower peak level than any current method, or than that estimated by a radiative transfer model with surfaces that include slope but not height. The MERIS third reprocessing recently adopted a new slope statistics model for Sun glint correction; the results show that this model is an outlier with respect to both the elevation model and other slope statistics models and we recommend that its adoption should be reviewed.