North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

Population-Growth And Vertical-Distribution Of Calanus-Helgolandicus In The Celtic Sea

Calanus helgolandicus over-winters in the shallow waters (100 m) of the Celtic Sea as copepodite stages V and VI; the minimum temperature in winter is approximately 8.0°C. This over-wintering is not a true hibernation or dormacy, accompanied by a reduced metabolic state with a discontinuation of feeding and development, but more of a lowered activity, involving reduced feeding and development, with predation on available microzooplankton and detritus. Analysis of specimens from the winter population showed that copepodite stages V and VI were actively feeding and still producing and possibly liberating eggs. The absence of late nauplii and young copepodites in the water column until late March indicated that there must be a high mortality of these winter cohorts. The copepodites of the first generation appeared in April–May, the younger stages, copepodites I to III, being distributed deeper in the water column below the euphotic zone and thermocline. This distribution would contribute to amuch slower rate of development. By August the ontogenetic vertical distributions observed in the copepodites were reversed, the younger stages occuring in the warmer surface layers within the euphotic zone. Diurnal migrations were observed in the later copepodites only, the younger stages I to III either remaining deep in spring or shallow in summer. The causal mechanisms which alter the behaviour of the young copepodites remain unexplained. The development of the population of Calanus helgolandicus in 1978, reaching its peak of abundance in August, was typical for the shelf seas around U.K. as observed from Continuous Plankton Recorder data, 1958 to 1977.