Scenarios for integrated river catchment and coastal zone management

The European Water Framework Directive requires EU Member States to introduce water quality objectives for all water bodies, including coastal waters. Measures will have to be introduced if these objectives are not met, given predictions based on current trends. In this context, the estimation of future fluxes of nutrients and contaminants in the catchment, and the evaluation of policies to improve water quality in coastal zones are an essential part of river basin management plans. This paper investigates the use of scenarios for integrated catchment/coastal zone management in the Humber Estuary in the U.K. The context of this ongoing research is a European research project which aims to assist the implementation of integrated catchment and coastal zone management by analysing the response of the coastal sea to changes in fluxes of nutrients and contaminants from the catchments. The example of the Humber illustrates how scenarios focusing on water quality improvement can provide a useful tool to investigate future fluxes and evaluate policy options for a more integrated coastal/catchment management strategy.

On the Potential of Surfers to Monitor Environmental Indicators in the Coastal Zone

The social and economic benefits of the coastal zone make it one of the most treasured environments on our planet. Yet it is vulnerable to increasing anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Coastal management aims to mitigate these pressures while augmenting the socio-economic benefits the coastal region has to offer. However, coastal management is challenged by inadequate sampling of key environmental indicators, partly due to issues relating to cost of data collection. Here, we investigate the use of recreational surfers as platforms to improve sampling coverage of environmental indicators in the coastal zone. We equipped a recreational surfer, based in the south west United Kingdom (UK), with a temperature sensor and Global Positioning System (GPS) device that they used when surfing for a period of one year (85 surfing sessions). The temperature sensor was used to derive estimates of sea-surface temperature (SST), an important environmental indicator, and the GPS device used to provide sample location and to extract information on surfer performance. SST data acquired by the surfer were compared with data from an oceanographic station in the south west UK and with satellite observations. Our results demonstrate: (i) high-quality SST data can be acquired by surfers using low cost sensors; and (ii) GPS data can provide information on surfing performance that may help motivate data collection by surfers. Using recent estimates of the UK surfing population, and frequency of surfer participation, we speculate around 40 million measurements on environmental indicators per year could be acquired at the UK coastline by surfers. This quantity of data is likely to enhance coastal monitoring and aid UK coastal management. Considering surfing is a world-wide sport, our results have global implications and the approach could be expanded to other popular marine recreational activities for coastal monitoring of environmental indicators.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.