Pulses in the eastern margin current and warmer water off the north west European shelf linked to North Sea ecosystem changes

The North Sea ecosystem has recently undergone dramatic changes, observed as altered biomass of individual species spanning a range of life forms from algae to birds, with evidence for an approximate doubling in the abundance of both phytoplankton and benthos as part of a regime shift after 1987. Remarkably, these changes, in part recorded in the Phytoplankton Colour Index of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are notable as episodic shifts occurring in 1988/89 and 1998 imposed on a gradual decadal trend. These biological events are shown to be a response to coincident changes in oceanic input and water temperature. Geostrophic transports have been calculated from a hydrographic section across the Rockall Trough, and a time series of seasurface temperature derived from satellite observations. The 2 pulses of oceanic incursion into the North Sea in circa 1988 and 1998 coincided with strong northward advection of anomalously warm water at the edge of the continental shelf.

Relating sardine recruitment in the Northern Benguela to satellite-derived sea surface height using a neural network pattern recognition approach

Processes of enrichment, concentration and retention are thought to be important for the successful recruitment of small pelagic fish in upwelling areas, but are difficult to measure. In this study, a novel approach is used to examine the role of spatio-temporal oceanographic variability on recruitment success of the Northern Benguela sardine Sardinops sagax. This approach applies a neural network pattern recognition technique, called a self-organising map (SOM), to a seven-year time series of satellite-derived sea level data. The Northern Benguela is characterised by quasi-perennial upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water and is influenced by intrusions of warm, nutrient-poor Angola Current water from the north. In this paper, these processes are categorised in terms of their influence on recruitment success through the key ocean triad mechanisms of enrichment, concentration and retention. Moderate upwelling is seen as favourable for recruitment, whereas strong upwelling, weak upwelling and Angola Current intrusion appear detrimental to recruitment success. The SOM was used to identify characteristic patterns from sea level difference data and these were interpreted with the aid of sea surface temperature data. We found that the major oceanographic processes of upwelling and Angola Current intrusion dominated these patterns, allowing them to be partitioned into those representing recruitment favourable conditions and those representing adverse conditions for recruitment. A marginally significant relationship was found between the index of sardine recruitment and the frequency of recruitment favourable conditions (r super(2) = 0.61, p = 0.068, n = 6). Because larvae are vulnerable to environmental influences for a period of at least 50 days after spawning, the SOM was then used to identify windows of persistent favourable conditions lasting longer than 50 days, termed recruitment favourable periods (RFPs). The occurrence of RFPs was compared with back-calculated spawning dates for each cohort. Finally, a comparison of RFPs with the time of spawning and the index of recruitment showed that in years where there were 50 or more days of favourable conditions following spawning, good recruitment followed (Mann-Whitney U-test: p = 0.064, n = 6). These results show the value of the SOM technique for describing spatio-temporal variability in oceanographic processes. Variability in these processes appears to be an important factor influencing recruitment in the Northern Benguela sardine, although the available data time series is currently too short to be conclusive. Nonetheless, the analysis of satellite data, using a neural network pattern-recognition approach, provides a useful framework for investigating fisheries recruitment problems.

Warm-water decapods and the trophic amplification of climate in the North Sea

A long-term time series of plankton and benthic records in the North Sea indicates an increase in decapods and a decline in their prey species that include bivalves and flatfish recruits. Here, we show that in the southern North Sea the proportion of decapods to bivalves doubled following a temperature-driven, abrupt ecosystem shift during the 1980s. Analysis of decapod larvae in the plankton reveals a greater presence and spatial extent of warm-water species where the increase in decapods is greatest. These changes paralleled the arrival of new species such as the warm-water swimming crab Polybius henslowii now found in the southern North Sea. We suggest that climate-induced changes among North Sea decapods have played an important role in the trophic amplification of a climate signal and in the development of the new North Sea dynamic regime.

Differential contribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates to phytoplankton biomass in the NE Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea

Sampling by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey over the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea has enabled long-term studies of phytoplankton biomass. Analysis of an index of phytoplankton biomass, the phytoplankton colour index (PCI), has previously shown an increase in phytoplankton biomass in the NE Atlantic. In the current study, further investigations were conducted to determine the contribution of diatom and dinoflagellate cell counts to the PCI, their fluctuations over the last 45 yr and their geographical variations in the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. An increased contribution of dinoflagellates to the PCI was revealed over the south NE Atlantic and the northern North Sea. In contrast, the contribution of diatoms decreased in the north NE Atlantic and the northern North Sea. No discernible trends were found in the other regions of the North Sea. The relative contributions of diatoms and dinoflagellates to the PCI led to the identification of 3 geographically distinct dynamic regimes in the diatom/dinoflagellate dynamics in the NE Atlantic and the North Sea. Finally, it is stressed that the discrepancy observed in the patterns of PCI and diatom and dinoflagellate cell counts suggests that changes in PCI do not reflect changes in the community structure and that the exclusive use of PCI is not adequate to investigate the long-term trends in the trophic link between phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton.

Is there a connection between high transport of water through the Rockall Trough and ecological changes in the North Sea?

Changes in the ecosystem of the North Sea may occur as pronounced inter-annual and step-wise shifts as well as gradual trends. Marked inter-annual shifts have occurred at least twice in the last two decades, the late 1980s and the late 1990s, that appear to reflect an increased inflow of oceanic water and species. Numerical modelling has demonstrated a link between altered rates of inflow of oceanic water into the northern North Sea and a regime shift after 1988. In 1989 and 1997 oceanic species not normally found in the North Sea were observed there, suggesting pulses of oceanic water had entered the basin and triggered the subsequent ecosystem change. The oceanic water has origins mainly west of Britain in the Rockall Trough, where the long-term mean volume transport is around 3.7Sv northwards (1Sv=10 super(6)m super(3)s super(1)), but in early 1989 and early 1998 was observed to be more than twice the mean value, reaching over 7Sv. These periods of high transport coinciding with the inferred pulses of oceanic water into the North Sea suggest a connection through the continental shelf edge current. Copyright 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

An overview of plankton ecology in the North Sea

The purpose of this report is to give an overview of plankton ecology in the North Sea, and the processes that effect it, as derived from current research. The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation has extensive data for the North Sea area, and other sources have also been used to provide information for this report. Shortfalls in current research have also been highlighted. The information contained herein is to be contributed towards an information base for the Strategic Environmental Assessment. The North Sea is an extension of the North Atlantic that has an area of 574,980 km2. The deepest area is off the coast of Norway (660m), with a number of shallow areas, such as the Dogger Bank (15m). The North Sea represents a large source of hydrocarbons that have been exploited since the early 1970s. The aim of this study is to provide the Department of Trade and Industry with biological data on the planktonic community of the North Sea, as a contribution towards the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA 2). An overview of phyto- and zoo- plankton community composition, plankton blooms, Calanus, mero-, pico- and megaplankton, sensitivity to disturbance / contamination, phytodetritus and vertical fluxes and the resting stages of phytoplankton is made using the results of the survey database. Additional published literature has also been used, and gaps in available data have been highlighted. 1.3 The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey provides a unique long-term dataset of plankton abundance in the North Atlantic and North Sea (Warner and Hays 1994). The survey has been running for almost 70 years, using ‘ships of opportunity’ to tow CPRs on regular, and incidental routes, sampling at a depth of 10 m. Each sample represents 18 km of tow and approximately 3 m3 of filtered seawater. Over 400 taxa of plankton are routinely identified by a team of taxonomists. The samples are also compared to colour charts to give an indication of ‘greenness’, which provides a visual index of chlorophyll value. CPRs have been towed for over 4 million nautical miles, accumulating almost 200,000 samples. The design of the CPR has remained virtually unchanged since sampling started, thus providing a consistency of sampling that provides good historical comparisons. By systematically monitoring the plankton over a period, changes in abundance and long term trends can be distinguished. From this baseline data, inferences can be made, particularly concerning climate change and potentialanthropogenic impacts.

Long-term changes in the pelagos, benthos and fisheries of the North Sea

Pronounced changes have occurred in the fisheries, plankton and benthos of the North Sea over the last five decades. Attribution of the relative contribution of anthropogenic versus natural hydrometeorological modulation to these changes is still unclear. As a background a summary history of our understanding of the state of health of the North Sea is outlined. We then focus on two contrasting periods in the North Sea, one between 1978-82 (cold) and the other post 1987 (warm) when pronounced alterations in many ecosystem characteristics occurred. The scale of the changes in the second of these periods is sufficiently large and wide ranging for it to have been termed a regime shift. A combination of local, regional and far field hydrometeorological forcing, and in particular variability in oceanic inflow, is believed to be responsible for the observed changes. Finally attention is drawn to the poor status of North Sea fish stocks where 7 stocks are documented as being fished outside safe biological limits. This situation is primarily believed to be a consequence of overfishing, but may have been exacerbated by environmental change.

Increasing prevalence of the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris (Dana, 1852) in the North Sea

Rising sea surface temperatures in the North Sea have had consequential effects on not only indigenous plankton species, but also on the possibility of successful colonisation of the area by invasive plankton species. Previous studies have noted the introduction and integration into the plankton community of various phytoplankton species, but establishment of zooplankton organisms in the North Sea is less well-documented. Examining continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data and zooplankton results from the Helgoland Roads study, the autumn of 1999 witnessed the occurrence of the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris in large numbers in the North Sea. The rapid appearance of the species corresponded with exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Since 1999, the species has become a regular feature of the autumnal zooplankton community of the North Sea. In 2002 and 2003, the species occurred in greater abundance than recorded before. It is suggested that increased autumn SSTs have proved favourable to P. avirostris, with warmer conditions contributing to the success of the species’ resting eggs and aiding colonisation.

Habitat and distribution of the warm-water barnacle Solidobalanus fallax (Crustacea: Cirripedia)

New records are given of the occurrence of the warm-water barnacle Solidobalanus fallax in Britain and Europe. This barnacle is not found on rocks or stones, but settles on biological substrata, including algae, cnidarians, bivalves, gastropods and crustaceans. It also settles on plastic bags and nets, plastic-coated objects such as crab and lobster pots and octopus pots made of ceramic or plastic. With one exception the species was unrecorded in Europe before 1980; it may have increased in abundance during recent years as a result of rising temperatures. The cyprid larvae, which can metamorphose on plastic Petri dishes, appear to be adapted to seek out ‘low energy’ surfaces. One of the habitats colonized by S. fallax is the sea-fan Eunicella verrucosa, where it seems to have increased in recent years, possibly to the detriment of the cnidarian host. Solidobalanus fallax has the potential to be a serious pest of fish-farming structures to the south of Britain

Continuous Plankton Records - Seasonal-Variations In The Distribution And Abundance Of Plankton In The North-Atlantic Ocean And The North-Sea

Charts are presented of the seasonal variations in the distribution of four phytoplankton and five zooplankton taxa in the North Atlantic and the North Sea. The main factors determining the seasonal variations appear to be the distribution of the main overwintering stocks, the current system and, in some instances, temperature control of the rate of population increase. Information is presented about the variation with latitude (over the range from 34° N to 65 ° N) of the seasonal regime of the plankton. On the assumption that there is a relationship between nutrient supply and vertical temperature stratification the main features of this variability can be interpreted. In the south (to about 43° N) nutrient limitation plus grazing appear to be dominant, resulting in a bimodal seasonal cycle of phytoplankton. North of about 60° N the system appears to be limited by the size of the phytoplankton stocks being grazed primarily by Calanus Finmarchicus and Euphausiacea. In an extensive zone, from about 44° N to 60° N, it would appear that the spring bloom of phytoplankton is under-exploited by grazing while in summer the zooplankton graze the daily production of the phytoplankton, the stocks of which are probably maintained by in situ nutrient regeneration. The implications, for at least this mid-latitude zone, that rates and fluxes of processes, as opposed to density dependent interactions between stocks, play a major role in the dynamics of the seasonal cycle is consistent with previously reported observations suggesting that physical environmental factors play a major role in determining year-to-year fluctuations in the abundance of the plankton.