10 resultados para Unobserved-component model

em Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)


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Phytoplankton size structure is an important indicator of the state of the pelagic ecosystem. Stimulated by the paucity of in situ observations on size structure, and by the sampling advantages of autonomous remote platforms, new efforts are being made to infer the size-structure of the phytoplankton from oceanographic variables that may be measured at high temporal and spatial resolution, such as total chlorophyll concentration. Large-scale analysis of in situ data has revealed coherent relationships between size-fractionated chlorophyll and total chlorophyll that can be quantified using the three-component model of Brewin et al. (2010). However, there are variations surrounding these general relationships. In this paper, we first revise the three-component model using a global dataset of surface phytoplankton pigment measurements. Then, using estimates of the average irradiance in the mixed-layer, we investigate the influence of ambient light on the parameters of the three-component model. We observe significant relationships between model parameters and the average irradiance in the mixed-layer, consistent with ecological knowledge. These relationships are incorporated explicitly into the three-component model to illustrate variations in the relationship between size-structure and total chlorophyll, ensuing from variations in light availability. The new model may be used as a tool to investigate modifications in size-structure in the context of a changing climate.

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Size-fractionated filtration (SFF) is a direct method for estimating pigment concentration in various size classes. It is also common practice to infer the size structure of phytoplankton communities from diagnostic pigments estimated by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). In this paper, the three-component model of Brewin et al. (2010) was fitted to coincident data from HPLC and from SFF collected along Atlantic Meridional Transect cruises. The model accounted for the variability in each data set, but the fitted model parameters differed for the two data sets. Both HPLC and SFF data supported the conceptual framework of the three-component model, which assumes that the chlorophyll concentration in small cells increases to an asymptotic maximum, beyond which further increase in chlorophyll is achieved by the addition of larger celled phytoplankton. The three-component model was extended to a multicomponent model of size structure using observed relationships between model parameters and assuming that the asymptotic concentration that can be reached by cells increased linearly with increase in the upper bound on the cell size. The multicomponent model was verified using independent SFF data for a variety of size fractions and found to perform well (0.628 ≤ r ≤ 0.989) lending support for the underlying assumptions. An advantage of the multicomponent model over the three-component model is that, for the same number of parameters, it can be applied to any size range in a continuous fashion. The multicomponent model provides a useful tool for studying the distribution of phytoplankton size structure at large scales.

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Phytoplankton total chlorophyll concentration (TCHLa) and phytoplankton size structure are two important ecological indicators in biological oceanography. Using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment data, collected from surface waters along the Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT), we examine temporal changes in TCHLa and phytoplankton size class (PSC: micro-, nano- and pico-phytoplankton) between 2003 and 2010 (September to November cruises only), in three ecological provinces of the Atlantic Ocean. The HPLC data indicate no significant change in TCHLa in northern and equatorial provinces, and an increase in the southern province. These changes were not significantly different to changes in TCHLa derived using satellite ocean-colour data over the same study period. Despite no change in AMT TCHLa in northern and equatorial provinces, significant differences in PSC were observed, related to changes in key diagnostic pigments (fucoxanthin, peridinin, 19′-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin and zeaxanthin), with an increase in small cells (nano- and pico-phytoplankton) and a decrease in larger cells (micro-phytoplankton). When fitting a three-component model of phytoplankton size structure — designed to quantify the relationship between PSC and TCHLa to each AMT cruise, model parameters varied over the study period. Changes in the relationship between PSC and TCHLa have wide implications in ecology and marine biogeochemistry, and provide key information for the development and use of empirical ocean-colour algorithms. Results illustrate the importance of maintaining a time-series of in-situ observations in remote regions of the ocean, such as that acquired in the AMT programme.

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The main purpose of this paper is to provide the core description of the modelling exercise within the Shelf Edge Advection Mortality And Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for the prediction of year-to-year survival of the early life-history stages of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic. The IBM is one of two components of the model system. The first component is a circulation model to provide physical input data for the IBM. The circulation model is a geographical variant of the HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The second component is the IBM, which is an i-space configuration model in which large numbers of individuals are followed as discrete entities to simulate the transport, growth and mortality of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae. Larval and post-larval growth is modelled as a function of length, temperature and food distribution; mortality is modelled as a function of length and absolute growth rate. Each particle is considered as a super-individual representing 10 super(6) eggs at the outset of the simulation, and then declining according to the mortality function. Simulations were carried out for the years 1998-2000. Results showed concentrations of particles at Porcupine Bank and the adjacent Irish shelf, along the Celtic Sea shelf-edge, and in the southern Bay of Biscay. High survival was observed only at Porcupine and the adjacent shelf areas, and, more patchily, around the coastal margin of Biscay. The low survival along the shelf-edge of the Celtic Sea was due to the consistently low estimates of food availability in that area.

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This paper details updates to the Met Office's operational coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model from the 7 km Medium-Resolution Continental Shelf – POLCOMS-ERSEM (MRCS-PE) system (Siddorn et al., 2007) to the 7 km Atlantic Margin Model NEMO-ERSEM (AMM7-NE) system. We also provide a validation of the ecosystem component of the new operational system. Comparisons have been made between the model variables and available in situ, satellite and climatological data. The AMM7-NE system has also been benchmarked against the MRCS-PE system. The transition to the new AMM7-NE system was successful and it has been running operationally since March 2012 and has been providing products through MyOcean (http://www.myocean.eu.org) since that time. The results presented herein show the AMM7-NE system performs better than the MRCS-PE system with the most improvement in the model nutrient fields. The problem of nutrient accumulation in the MRCS-PE system appears to be solved in the new AMM7-NE system with nutrient fields improved throughout the domain as discussed in Sect. 4. Improvements in model chlorophyll are also seen but are more modest.

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Sea ice in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region is both highly variable and rapidly changing. In the Palmer Station region, the ice season duration has decreased by 92 d since 1978. The sea-ice changes affect ocean stratification and freshwater balance and in turn impact every component of the polar marine ecosystem. Long-term observations from the WAP nearshore and offshore regions show a pattern of chlorophyll (Chl) variability with three to five years of negative Chl anomalies interrupted by one or two years of positive anomalies (high and low Chl regimes). Both field observations and results from an inverse food-web model show that these high and low Chl regimes differed significantly from each other, with high primary productivity and net community production (NCP) and other rates associated with the high Chl years and low rates with low Chl years. Gross primary production rates (GPP) averaged 30 mmolC.m-2.d-1 in the low Chl years and 100 mmolC.m-2.d-1 in the high Chl years. Both large and small phytoplankton were more abundant and more productive in high Chl years than in low Chl years. Similarly, krill were more important as grazers in high Chl years, but did not differ from microzooplankton in high or low Chl years. Microzooplankton did not differ between high and low Chl years. Net community production differed significantly between high and low Chl years, but mobilized a similar proportion of GPP in both high and low Chl years. The composition of the NCP was uniform in high and low Chl years. These results mphasize the importance of microbial components in the WAP plankton system and suggest that food webs dominated by small phytoplankton can have pathways that funnel production into NCP, and likely, export.

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Ecosystem models are often assessed using quantitative metrics of absolute ecosystem state, but these model-data comparisons are disproportionately vulnerable to discrepancies in the location of important circulation features. An alternative method is to demonstrate the models capacity to represent ecosystem function; the emergence of a coherent natural relationship in a simulation indicates that the model may have an appropriate representation of the ecosystem functions that lead to the emergent relationship. Furthermore, as emergent properties are large-scale properties of the system, model validation with emergent properties is possible even when there is very little or no appropriate data for the region under study, or when the hydrodynamic component of the model differs significantly from that observed in nature at the same location and time. A selection of published meta-analyses are used to establish the validity of a complex marine ecosystem model and to demonstrate the power of validation with emergent properties. These relationships include the phytoplankton community structure, the ratio of carbon to chlorophyll in phytoplankton and particulate organic matter, the ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These metrics can also inform aspects of the marine ecosystem model not available from traditional quantitative and qualitative methods. For instance, these emergent properties can be used to validate the design decisions of the model, such as the range of phytoplankton functional types and their behaviour, the stoichiometric flexibility with regards to each nutrient, and the choice of fixed or variable carbon to nitrogen ratios.

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Purines are nitrogen-rich compounds that are widely distributed in the marine environment and are an important component of the dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) pool. Even though purines have been shown to be degraded by bacterioplankton, the identities of marine bacteria capable of purine degradation and their underlying catabolic mechanisms are currently unknown. This study shows that Ruegeria pomeroyi, a model marine bacterium and Marine Roseobacter Clade (MRC) representative, utilizes xanthine as a source of carbon and nitrogen. The R. pomeroyi genome contains putative genes that encode xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH), which is expressed during growth with xanthine. RNAseq-based analysis of the R. pomeroyi transcriptome revealed that the transcription of an XDH-initiated catabolic pathway is up-regulated during growth with xanthine, with transcription greatest when xanthine was the only available carbon source. The RNAseq-deduced pathway indicates that glyoxylate and ammonia are the key intermediates from xanthine degradation. Utilising a laboratory model, this study has identified the potential genes and catabolic pathway active during xanthine degradation. The ability of R. pomeroyi to utilize xanthine provides novel insights into the capabilities of the MRC that may contribute to their success in marine ecosystems and the potential biogeochemical importance of the group in processing DON.

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Purines are nitrogen-rich compounds that are widely distributed in the marine environment and are an important component of the dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) pool. Even though purines have been shown to be degraded by bacterioplankton, the identities of marine bacteria capable of purine degradation and their underlying catabolic mechanisms are currently unknown. This study shows that Ruegeria pomeroyi, a model marine bacterium and Marine Roseobacter Clade (MRC) representative, utilizes xanthine as a source of carbon and nitrogen. The R. pomeroyi genome contains putative genes that encode xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH), which is expressed during growth with xanthine. RNAseq-based analysis of the R. pomeroyi transcriptome revealed that the transcription of an XDH-initiated catabolic pathway is up-regulated during growth with xanthine, with transcription greatest when xanthine was the only available carbon source. The RNAseq-deduced pathway indicates that glyoxylate and ammonia are the key intermediates from xanthine degradation. Utilising a laboratory model, this study has identified the potential genes and catabolic pathway active during xanthine degradation. The ability of R. pomeroyi to utilize xanthine provides novel insights into the capabilities of the MRC that may contribute to their success in marine ecosystems and the potential biogeochemical importance of the group in processing DON.