The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Fine-scale nutrient and carbonate system dynamics around cold-water coral reefs in the northeast Atlantic.

Ocean acidification has been suggested as a serious threat to the future existence of cold-water corals (CWC). However, there are few fine-scale temporal and spatial datasets of carbonate and nutrients conditions available for these reefs, which can provide a baseline definition of extant conditions. Here we provide observational data from four different sites in the northeast Atlantic that are known habitats for CWC. These habitats differ by depth and by the nature of the coral habitat. At depths where CWC are known to occur across these sites the dissolved inorganic carbon ranged from 2088 to 2186 μmol kg−1, alkalinity ranged from 2299 to 2346 μmol kg−1, and aragonite Ω ranged from 1.35 to 2.44. At two sites fine-scale hydrodynamics caused increased variability in the carbonate and nutrient conditions over daily time-scales. The observed high level of variability must be taken into account when assessing CWC sensitivities to future environmental change.

Are Fast Responses More Random? Testing the Effect of Response Time on Scale in an Online Choice Experiment

Scepticism over stated preference surveys conducted online revolves around the concerns over “professional respondents” who might rush through the questionnaire without sufficiently considering the information provided. To gain insight on the validity of this phenomenon and test the effect of response time on choice randomness, this study makes use of a recently conducted choice experiment survey on ecological and amenity effects of an offshore windfarm in the UK. The positive relationship between self-rated and inferred attribute attendance and response time is taken as evidence for a link between response time and cognitive effort. Subsequently, the generalised multinomial logit model is employed to test the effect of response time on scale, which indicates the weight of the deterministic relative to the error component in the random utility model. Results show that longer response time increases scale, i.e. decreases choice randomness. This positive scale effect of response time is further found to be non-linear and wear off at some point beyond which extreme response time decreases scale. While response time does not systematically affect welfare estimates, higher response time increases the precision of such estimates. These effects persist when self-reported choice certainty is controlled for. Implications of the results for online stated preference surveys and further research are discussed.

A novel near real-time quality-control procedure for radiometric profiles measured by Bio-Argo floats: protocols and performances

An array of Bio-Argo floats equipped with radiometric sensors has been recently deployed in various open ocean areas representative of the diversity of trophic and bio-optical conditions prevailing in the so-called Case 1 waters. Around solar noon and almost everyday, each float acquires 0-250 m vertical profiles of Photosynthetically Available Radiation and downward irradiance at three wavelengths (380, 412 and 490 nm). Up until now, more than 6500 profiles for each radiometric channel have been acquired. As these radiometric data are collected out of operator’s control and regardless of meteorological conditions, specific and automatic data processing protocols have to be developed. Here, we present a data quality-control procedure aimed at verifying profile shapes and providing near real-time data distribution. This procedure is specifically developed to: 1) identify main issues of measurements (i.e. dark signal, atmospheric clouds, spikes and wave-focusing occurrences); 2) validate the final data with a hierarchy of tests to ensure a scientific utilization. The procedure, adapted to each of the four radiometric channels, is designed to flag each profile in a way compliant with the data management procedure used by the Argo program. Main perturbations in the light field are identified by the new protocols with good performances over the whole dataset. This highlights its potential applicability at the global scale. Finally, the comparison with modeled surface irradiances allows assessing the accuracy of quality-controlled measured irradiance values and identifying any possible evolution over the float lifetime due to biofouling and instrumental drift.

A novel near real-time quality-control procedure for radiometric profiles measured by Bio-Argo floats: protocols and performances

An array of Bio-Argo floats equipped with radiometric sensors has been recently deployed in various open ocean areas representative of the diversity of trophic and bio-optical conditions prevailing in the so-called Case 1 waters. Around solar noon and almost everyday, each float acquires 0-250 m vertical profiles of Photosynthetically Available Radiation and downward irradiance at three wavelengths (380, 412 and 490 nm). Up until now, more than 6500 profiles for each radiometric channel have been acquired. As these radiometric data are collected out of operator’s control and regardless of meteorological conditions, specific and automatic data processing protocols have to be developed. Here, we present a data quality-control procedure aimed at verifying profile shapes and providing near real-time data distribution. This procedure is specifically developed to: 1) identify main issues of measurements (i.e. dark signal, atmospheric clouds, spikes and wave-focusing occurrences); 2) validate the final data with a hierarchy of tests to ensure a scientific utilization. The procedure, adapted to each of the four radiometric channels, is designed to flag each profile in a way compliant with the data management procedure used by the Argo program. Main perturbations in the light field are identified by the new protocols with good performances over the whole dataset. This highlights its potential applicability at the global scale. Finally, the comparison with modeled surface irradiances allows assessing the accuracy of quality-controlled measured irradiance values and identifying any possible evolution over the float lifetime due to biofouling and instrumental drift.