Long-Term Retrospective Analysis of Mackerel Spawning in the North Sea: A New Time Series and Modeling Approach to CPR Data

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock

How does Calanus helgolandicus maintain its population in a variable environment? Analysis of a 25-year time series from the English Channel

Calanus helgolandicus is a key copepod of the NE Atlantic and fringing shelves, with a distribution that is expanding northwards with oceanic warming. The Plymouth L4 site has warmed over the past 25-years, and experiences large variations in the timing and availability of food for C. helgolandicus. Here we examine the degree to which these changes translate into variation in reproductive output and subsequently C. helgolandicus population size. Egg production rates (eggs female−1 day−1) were maximal in the spring to early-summer period of diatom blooms and high ciliate abundance, rather than during the equally large autumn blooms of autotrophic dinoflagellates. Egg hatch success was lower in spring however, with a greater proportion of naupliar deformities then also. Both the timing and the mean summer abundance of C. helgolandicus (CI–CVI) reflected those of spring total reproductive output. However this relationship was driven by inter-annual variability in female abundance and not that of egg production per female, which ranged only two-fold. Winter abundance of C. helgolandicus at L4 was much more variable than abundance in other seasons, and reflected conditions from the previous growing season. However, these low winter abundances had no clear carry-over signal to the following season’s population size. Overall, the C. helgolandicus population appears to be surprisingly resilient at this dynamic, inshore site, showing no long-term phenology shift and only a four-fold variation in mean abundance between years. This dampening effect may reflect a series of mortality sources, associated with the timing of stratification in the early part of the season, likely affecting egg sinking and loss, plus intense, density-dependent mortality of early stages in mid-summer likely through predation.

Comparing copepod time-series in the north of Spain: Spatial autocorrelation of community composition

Four time-series of copepod species biomass in the north of Spain were contrasted to demonstrate spatial autocorrelation of local communities and their responses to short-term local and regional variability in oceanographic conditions. The series represented coastal and oceanic environments along a marked gradient of influence of seasonal upwelling from Galicia to the Mar Cantábrico (S Bay of Biscay), and each one included at least 10 years of continuous data collected at monthly frequency. Community composition (i.e. species number and diversity) was very consistent through the region, but local variations in the presence of new species and the relative proportions of common species allowed for the characterisation of the response to the environment at each site. Small-sized species were more frequent near the coast. A few species, however, captured the main patterns of variability in all series. Calanus helgolandicus and Acartia (mainly Acartia clausi) were generally the main contributors to total biomass, while other species as Paracalanus parvus and Clausocalanus spp. were important only at some locations. Most copepod indices were positively correlated with upwelling, either considering the whole community (biomass, species richness and diversity) or individual species, but only in the coastal series analysed since 1991. Copepods in the nearby ocean, however, showed negative correlations with upwelling in the period 1960–1986. The effects of upwelling may have been modulated by local factors, as showed by the increases in biomass, number of species and diversity in associations with increases in sea surface temperature in Galicia, while in the Mar Cantábrico only the warming-tolerant species increased and those typical of upwelling decreased. Density stratification of the water column was associated with decreases in total copepod biomass in Galicia, while it favoured the increase in species richness in the Mar Cantábrico. Nearly all significant responses of copepods to environmental variability were delayed by up to 5 months, showing the importance of considering time-lags in the analysis of temporal responses of zooplankton.

A comparison of two zooplankton time series data collected in the Gulf of Maine

Interannual and seasonal trends of zooplankton abundance and species composition were compared between the Bongo net and Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) time series in the Gulf of Maine. Data from 5799 Bongo and 3118 CPR samples were compared from the years 1978–2006. The two programs use different sampling methods, with the Bongo time series composed of bimonthly vertically integrated samples from locations throughout the region, while the CPR was towed monthly at 10 m depth on a transect that bisects the region. It was found that there was a significant correlation between the interannual (r = 0.67, P < 0.01) and seasonal (r = 0.95, P < 0.01) variability of total zooplankton counts. Abundance rankings of individual taxa were highly correlated and temporal trends of dominant copepods were similar between samplers. Multivariate analysis also showed that both time series equally detected major shifts in community structure through time. However, absolute abundance levels were higher in the Bongo and temporal patterns for many of the less abundant taxa groups were not similar between the two devices. The different mesh sizes of the samplers probably caused some of the discrepancies; but diel migration patterns, damage to soft bodied animals and avoidance of the small CPR aperture by some taxa likely contributed to the catch differences between the two devices. Nonetheless, Bongo data presented here confirm the previously published patterns found in the CPR data set, and both show that the abundance increase of the 1990s has been followed by average to below average levels from 2002 to 06.

Comparisons of zooplankton time series

Evidence for climate-correlated low frequency variability of various components of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past 2 decades. There has also been a growing recognition that society needs to learn how the fluctuations of these various components are linked, and to predict the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes. Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially suitable for examining variability of marine ecosystems at interannual to decadal time scales. Their life cycle duration is short enough that there is little carryover of population membership from year to year, but long enough that variability can be tracked with monthly-to-seasonal sampling. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, comparative analysis of changes in their abundance can greatly enhance our ability to evaluate the importance of and interaction between physical environment, food web, and fishery harvest as causal mechanisms driving ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade, covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition, changes in spatial distribution, and changes in seasonal timing. But because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of local analyses is often low, and between-region and between-variable comparisons are also needed. In this paper, we review the results of recent within- and between-region analyses, and suggest some priorities for future work.

The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Continuous Plankton Records - Persistence In Time-Series And The Population-Dynamics Of Pseudocalanus-Elongatus And Acartia-Clausi

Rates of population increase in early spring and the sizes of overwintering stocks were calculated for the planktonic copepods Pseudocalanus elongatus and Acartia clausi for a set of areas covering the open waters of the north-east Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea for the period 1948 to 1979. For both species, the rates of population increase were higher in the open ocean than in the North Sea and appear to be related to temperature. The overwintering stocks in the North Sea were larger than those in the open ocean and are probably related to phytoplanton concentration. P. elongatus shows higher overwintering stocks and lower rates of population increase than A. clausi, resulting in different levels of persistence in the stocks of the two species. It is suggested that this difference in persistence is responsible for differences between the two species with respect to geographical distribution in summer and different patterns of year-to-year fluctuations in abundance.

Continuous Plankton Records - Persistence In Time-Series Of Annual Means Of Abundance Of Zooplankton

Time-series of annual means of abundance of zooplankton of the north-east Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea, for the period 1948 to 1977, show considerable associations between successive years. The seasonal dynamics of the stocks appear to be consistent with at least a proportion of this being due to inherent persistence from year-to-year. Experiments with a simple model suggest that the observed properties of the time-series cannot be reproduced as a response to simple random forcing. The extent of trends and long wavelength variations can be simulated by introducing fairly extensive persistence into the perturbations, but this underestimates the extent of shorter wavelength variability in the observed time-series. The effect of persistence is to increase the proportion of trend and long wavelength variability in time-series of annual means, but stocks can respond to short wavelength perturbations provided these have a clearly defined frequency.