Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate

Recently, large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans have been detected in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages were found with a northward extension of more than ° in latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These changes were attributed to regional increase in sea surface temperature. Here, we have extended these studies to examine long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon in relation to hydro-meteorological forcing in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. We found highly significant relationships between (1) long-term changes in all three trophic levels, (2) sea surface temperature in the northeastern Atlantic, (3) Northern Hemisphere temperature and (4) the North Atlantic Oscillation. The similarities detected between plankton, salmon, temperature and hydro-climatic parameters are also seen in their cyclical variability and in a stepwise shift that started after a pronounced increase in Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies at the end of the 1970s. All biological variables show a pronounced change which started after circa 1982 for euphausiids (decline), 1984 for the total abundance of small copepods (increase), 1986 for phytoplankton biomass (increase) and Calanus finmarchicus (decrease) and 1988 for salmon (decrease). This cascade of biological events led to an exceptional period, which is identified after 1986 to present and followed another shift in large-scale hydro-climatic variables and sea surface temperature. This regional temperature increase therefore appears to be an important parameter that is at present governing the dynamic equilibrium of northeast Atlantic pelagic ecosystems with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes and fisheries.

Macroecological study of Centropages typicus in the North Atlantic Ocean

Centropages typicus is a temperate neritic-coastal species of the North Atlantic Oceans, generally found between the latitudes of the Mediterranean and the Norwegian Sea. Therefore, the species experiences a large number of environments and adjusts its life cycle in response to changes in key abiotic parameters such as temperature. Using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, we review the macroecology of C. typicus and factors that influence its spatial distribution, phenology and year-to-year to decadal variability. The ecological preferences are identified and quantified. Mechanisms that allow the species to occur in such different environments are discussed and hypotheses are proposed as to how the species adapts to its environment. We show that temperature and both quantity and quality of phytoplankton are important factors explaining the space and time variability of C. typicus. These results show that C. typicus will not respond only to temperature increase in the region but also to changes in phytoplankton abundance, structure and composition and timing of occurrence. Methods such as a decision tree can help to forecast expected changes in the distribution of this species with hydro-climatic forcing. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term declining trend of zooplankton biomass in the Tropical Atlantic

We report evidences that the zooplankton biomass in the tropical Atlantic has declined with an almost 10-fold drop from the 1950s to 2000. The results of the multiple regression analysis showed that the decline in zooplankton biomass was positively related to the NAO-index and to phosphate concentration. We also found that the depth of the thermocline has decreased over the period of our investigation. Thus, the decline we report in zooplankton biomass may be related to the combined effect of two phenomena driven by global temperature increase: (1) the widening of the distributional range of tropical species due to the expansion of the ‘tropical belt’ and (2) a decrease in primary production resulting from the thinning of the thermocline. The decline of zooplankton biomass we report suggests that global warming of the ocean may be altering tropical food webs, and through them, it may also indirectly impact tropical oceans biogeochemical cycles.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems and the goods and services they provide for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Intertwined ocean and climate: implications for international climate negotiations

The atmosphere and ocean are two components of the Earth system that are essential for life, yet humankind is altering both. Contemporary climate change is now a well-identified problem: anthropogenic causes, disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies all around the world. But part of the problem remains largely unknown outside the scientific community: significant changes are also occurring in the ocean, threatening life and its sustainability on Earth. This Policy Brief explains the significance of these changes in the ocean. It is based on a scientific paper recently published in Science (Gattuso et al., 2015), which synthesizes recent and future changes to the ocean and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services they provide to humans. Two contrasting CO2 emission scenarios are considered: the high emissions scenario (also known as “business-as-usual” and as the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Copenhagen Accord1 of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in 2100.

The Influence Of Temperature And Salinity On Energy Partitioning In The Marine Nematode Diplolaimelloides-Bruciei

Measurements of population growth, generation time, fecundity and respiration in laboratory culture have been made, in relation to temperature and salinity, for the nematode Diplolaimelloides bruciei Hopper, a species normally associated with decayed material of the marsh grass Spartina. The intrinsic rate of increase (r) is high: it is related to temperature between 5° and 25°C by a sigmoid function which is steepest between 10° and 15°C, and is maximum at 26‰ salinity. Generation time is related to temperature by a power function and is shortest at 26‰ salinity. The effect of temperature on generation time is consistent with other data for marine nematodes, and the steep slope of r against temperature is largely due to the marked effect of temperature on fecundity. A sex ratio of 2:1 in favour of males is maintained regardless of culture conditions or population density. Respiration increases exponentially with temperature between 5° and 25°C, with a very high Q10 (3.94), but is not affected by salinity. At 30°C respiration is no higher than at 25°C. A high and relatively stable production efficiency (P/A) is maintained between 10 and 30°C with a maximum of 87% at 15°C; there is a stable reproductive effort (Pr/A) of about 10%. At 5°C both these ratios are zero. Data for the harpacticoid copepod Tachidius discipes, derived from the literature, show that this too has a high and stable production efficiency, which may be a characteristic of meiofaunal species in general, but in this species efficiency is relatively high at 5°C. Many features of the energy balance in D. bruciei can be related to an opportunistic mode of life.

Temperature affects the timing of spawning and migration of North Sea mackerel

Climate change accentuates the need for knowing how temperature impacts the life history and productivity of economically and ecologically important species of fish. We examine the influence of temperature on the timing of the spawning and migrations of North Sea Mackerel using data from larvae CPR surveys, egg surveys and commercial landings from Danish coastal fisheries in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and inner Danish waters. The three independent sources of data all show that there is a significant relationship between the timing of spawning and sea surface temperature. Large mackerel are shown to arrive at the feeding areas before and leave later than small mackerel and the sequential appearance of mackerel in each of the feeding areas studied supports the anecdotal evidence for an eastward post-spawning migration. Occasional commercial catches taken in winter in the Sound N, Kattegat and Skagerrak together with catches in the first quarter IBTS survey furthermore indicate some overwintering here. Significant relationships between temperature and North Sea mackerel spawning and migration have not been documented before. The results have implications for mackerel resource management and monitoring. An increase in temperature is likely to affect the timing and magnitude of the growth, recruitment and migration of North Sea mackerel with subsequent impacts on its sustainable exploitation.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.

The influence of phytoplankton productivity, temperature and environmental stability on the control of copepod diversity in the North East Atlantic

The patterns of copepod species richness (S) and their relationship with phytoplankton productivity, temperature and environmental stability were investigated at climatological, seasonal and year-to-year time scales as well as scales along latitudinal and oceanic–neritic gradients using monthly time series of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey collected in the North East Atlantic between 1958 and 2006. Time series analyses confirmed previously described geographic patterns. Equatorward and towards neritic environments, the climatological average of S increases and the variance explained by the seasonal cycle decreases. The bi-modal character of seasonality increases equatorward and the timing of the seasonal cycle takes place progressive earlier equatorward and towards neritic environments. In the long-term, the climatological average of S decreased significantly (p < 0.001) between 1958 and 2006 in the Bay of Biscay and North Iberian shelf at a rate of ca. 0.04 year−1, and increased at the same rate between 1991 and 2006 in the northernmost oceanic location. The climatological averages of S correlate positively with those of the index of seasonality of phytoplankton productivity (ratio between the minimum and maximum monthly values of surface chlorophyll) and sea surface temperature, and negatively with those of the proxy for environmental stability (monthly frequency of occurrence of daily averaged wind speed exceeding 10 m s−1). The seasonal cycles of S and phytoplankton productivity (surface chlorophyll as proxy) exhibit similar features in terms of shape, timing and explained variance, but the relationship between the climatological averages of both variables is non-significant. From year-to-year, the annual averages of S correlate negatively with those of phytoplankton productivity and positively with those of sea surface temperature along the latitudinal gradient, and negatively with those of environmental stability along the oceanic–neritic gradient. The annual anomalies of S (i.e. factoring out geographic variation) show a unimodal relationship with those of sea surface temperature and environmental stability, with S peaking at intermediate values of the anomalies of these variables. The results evidence the role of seasonality of phytoplankton productivity on the control of copepod species richness at seasonal and climatological scales, giving support to the species richness–productivity hypothesis. Although sea surface temperature (SST) is indeed a good predictor of richness along the latitudinal gradient, it is unable to predict the increase of richness form oceanic to neritic environments, thus lessening the generality of the species richness–energy hypothesis. Meteo-hydrographic disturbances (i.e. SST and wind speed anomalies as proxies), presumably through its role on mixed layer depth dynamics and turbulence and hence productivity, maximise local diversity when occurring at intermediate frequency and or intensity, thus providing support to the intermediate disturbance hypothesis on the control of copepod diversity.

Enhancement of primary production in the North Atlantic outside of the spring bloom, identified by remote sensing of ocean colour and temperature

The heterogeneity in phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic after the spring bloom is poorly understood. We analysed merged microwave and infrared satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data and ocean colour phytoplankton size class biomass, primary production (PP) and new production (ExP) derived from SeaWiFS data, to assess the spatial and temporal frequency of surface thermal fronts and areas of enhanced PP and ExP. Strong and persistent surface thermal fronts occurred at the Reykjanes Ridge (RR) and sub-polar front (SPF), which sustain high PP and ExP and, outside of the spring bloom, account for 9% and 15% of the total production in the North Atlantic. When normalised by area, PP at the SPF is four times higher than the RR. Analysis of 13 years of satellite ocean colour data from SeaWiFS, and compared with MODIS-Aqua and MERIS, showed that there was no increase in Chla from 1998 to 2002, which then decreased in all areas from 2002 to 2007 and was most pronounced in the RR. These time series also illustrated that the SPF exhibited the highest PP and the lowest variation in Chla over the ocean colour record. This implies that the SPF provides a high and consistent supply of carbon to the benthos irrespective of fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Effects of increases in temperature and nutrients on phytoplankton community structure and photosynthesis in the Western English Channel

Anthropogenic climate change is exerting pressures on coastal ecosystems through increases in temperature, precipitation and ocean acidification. Phytoplankton community structure and photo-physiology are therefore adapting to these conditions. Changes in phytoplankton biomass and photosynthesis in relation to temperature and nutrient concentrations were assessed using a 14 year dataset from a coastal station in the Western English Channel (WEC). Dinoflagellate and coccolithophorid biomass exhibited a positive correlation with temperature, reaching the highest biomass at between 15 and 17°C. Diatoms showed a negative correlation with temperature, with highest biomass at 10°C. Chlorophyll a (chl a) normalised light-saturated photosynthetic rates (PBm) exhibited a hyperbolic response to increasing temperature, with an initial linear increase from 8 to 11°C, and reaching a plateau from 12°C. There was however no significant positive correlation between nutrients and phytoplankton biomass or PBm, which reflects the lag time between nutrient input and phytoplankton growth at this coastal site. The major phytoplankton groups that occurred at this site occupied distinct thermal niches, which in turn modified PBm. Increasing temperature, and higher water column stratification, was major factors in the initiation of dinoflagellates blooms at this site. Dinoflagellates blooms during summer also co-varied with silicate concentration, and acted as a tracer of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate from river run-off, which were subsequently reduced during these blooms. The data implies that increasing temperature and high river runoff during summer, will promote dinoflaglellates blooms in the WEC.

Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains

The global warming debate has sparked an unprecedented interest in temperature effects on coccolithophores. The calcification response to temperature changes reported in the literature, however, is ambiguous. The two main sources of this ambiguity are putatively differences in experimental setup and strain specificity. In this study we therefore compare three strains isolated in the North Pacific under identical experimental conditions. Three strains of Emiliania huxleyi type A were grown under non-limiting nutrient and light conditions, at 10, 15, 20 and 25 °C. All three strains displayed similar growth rate versus temperature relationships, with an optimum at 20–25 °C. Elemental production (particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), total particulate nitrogen (TPN)), coccolith mass, coccolith size, and width of the tube element cycle were positively correlated with temperature over the sub-optimum to optimum temperature range. The correlation between PIC production and coccolith mass/size supports the notion that coccolith mass can be used as a proxy for PIC production in sediment samples. Increasing PIC production was significantly positively correlated with the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in one strain only. Generally, coccoliths were heavier when PIC production was higher. This shows that incompleteness of coccoliths is not due to time shortage at high PIC production. Sub-optimal growth temperatures lead to an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths in a strain-specific fashion. Since in total only six strains have been tested thus far, it is presently difficult to say whether sub-optimal temperature is an important factor causing malformations in the field. The most important parameter in biogeochemical terms, the PIC : POC ratio, shows a minimum at optimum growth temperature in all investigated strains. This clarifies the ambiguous picture featuring in the literature, i.e. discrepancies between PIC : POC–temperature relationships reported in different studies using different strains and different experimental setups. In summary, global warming might cause a decline in coccolithophore's PIC contribution to the rain ratio, as well as improved fitness in some genotypes due to fewer coccolith malformations.

Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains

The global warming debate has sparked an unprecedented interest in temperature effects on coccolithophores. The calcification response to temperature changes reported in the literature, however, is ambiguous. The two main sources of this ambiguity are putatively differences in experimental setup and strain specificity. In this study we therefore compare three strains isolated in the North Pacific under identical experimental conditions. Three strains of Emiliania huxleyi type A were grown under non-limiting nutrient and light conditions, at 10, 15, 20 and 25 °C. All three strains displayed similar growth rate versus temperature relationships, with an optimum at 20–25 °C. Elemental production (particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), total particulate nitrogen (TPN)), coccolith mass, coccolith size, and width of the tube element cycle were positively correlated with temperature over the sub-optimum to optimum temperature range. The correlation between PIC production and coccolith mass/size supports the notion that coccolith mass can be used as a proxy for PIC production in sediment samples. Increasing PIC production was significantly positively correlated with the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in one strain only. Generally, coccoliths were heavier when PIC production was higher. This shows that incompleteness of coccoliths is not due to time shortage at high PIC production. Sub-optimal growth temperatures lead to an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths in a strain-specific fashion. Since in total only six strains have been tested thus far, it is presently difficult to say whether sub-optimal temperature is an important factor causing malformations in the field. The most important parameter in biogeochemical terms, the PIC : POC ratio, shows a minimum at optimum growth temperature in all investigated strains. This clarifies the ambiguous picture featuring in the literature, i.e. discrepancies between PIC : POC–temperature relationships reported in different studies using different strains and different experimental setups. In summary, global warming might cause a decline in coccolithophore's PIC contribution to the rain ratio, as well as improved fitness in some genotypes due to fewer coccolith malformations.