North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

Development and validation of a molecular technique for the analysis of archived formalin-preserved phytoplankton samples permits retrospective assessment of Emiliania huxleyi communities

The coccolithophores, particularly the species Emiliania huxleyi (Lohmann) Hay & Mohler, account for the bulk of global calcium carbonate production and as such play a fundamental role in global CO2 cycling and the carbonate chemistry of the oceans. To evaluate the response of this functional group to the effects of climate change, we undertook a feasibility study to determine whether a retrospective approach could be used on archived coccolithophore datasets. We demonstrate for the first time a technique for the extraction of E. huxleyi nucleic acids from archived formalin-fixed samples of the long-term Continuous Plankton Recorder. Molecular analysis of a nine year old formalin-fixed sample reveals the presence of a diverse population of E. huxleyi genotypes within a developing coccolithophore bloom. In addition, E. huxleyi sequences were amplified from a number of formalin-fixed samples, the earliest of which was collected in August 1972. This molecular assay promises the possibility of studying global variations in the distribution and genetic make-up of E. huxleyi communities over extensive periods of time. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.