Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.

DNA from historical and trophy samples provides insights into white shark population origins and genetic diversity

Characterizing genetic variation by retrospective genotyping of trophy or historical artifacts from endangered species is an important conservation tool. Loss of genetic diversity in top predators such as the white shark Carcharodon carcharias remains an issue, exacerbated in this species by declining, sometimes isolated philopatric populations. We successfully sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop from osteodentine of contemporary South African white shark teeth (from 3 jaws), and from 34 to 129 yr old dried cartilage and skin samples from 1 Pacific Ocean and 5 Mediterranean sharks. Osteodentine-derived sequences from South African fish matched those derived from an individual’s finclips, but were generally of poorer quality than those from skin and cartilage of historical samples. Three haplotypes were identified from historical Mediterranean samples (n = 5); 2 individuals had unique sequences and 3 shared the contemporary Mediterranean haplotype. Placement of previously undescribed mtDNA haplotypes from historical material within both the Mediterranean and Pacific clades fits with the accepted intra-specific phylogeny derived from contemporary material, verifying our approaches. The utility of our methodology is in its provision of additional genetic resources from osteodentine (for species lacking tooth pulp) and cartilage of rare and endangered species held in often uncurated, contemporary and historical dry collections. Such material can usefully supplement estimates of connectivity, population history, and stock viability. We confirm the depauperate haplotype diversity of historical Mediterranean sharks, consistent with founding by a small number of Pacific colonizers. The consequent lack of diversity suggests serious challenges for the maintenance of this top predator and the Mediterranean ecosystem.

DNA from historical and trophy samples provides insights into white shark population origins and genetic diversity

Characterizing genetic variation by retrospective genotyping of trophy or historical artifacts from endangered species is an important conservation tool. Loss of genetic diversity in top predators such as the white shark Carcharodon carcharias remains an issue, exacerbated in this species by declining, sometimes isolated philopatric populations. We successfully sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop from osteodentine of contemporary South African white shark teeth (from 3 jaws), and from 34 to 129 yr old dried cartilage and skin samples from 1 Pacific Ocean and 5 Mediterranean sharks. Osteodentine-derived sequences from South African fish matched those derived from an individual’s finclips, but were generally of poorer quality than those from skin and cartilage of historical samples. Three haplotypes were identified from historical Mediterranean samples (n = 5); 2 individuals had unique sequences and 3 shared the contemporary Mediterranean haplotype. Placement of previously undescribed mtDNA haplotypes from historical material within both the Mediterranean and Pacific clades fits with the accepted intra-specific phylogeny derived from contemporary material, verifying our approaches. The utility of our methodology is in its provision of additional genetic resources from osteodentine (for species lacking tooth pulp) and cartilage of rare and endangered species held in often uncurated, contemporary and historical dry collections. Such material can usefully supplement estimates of connectivity, population history, and stock viability. We confirm the depauperate haplotype diversity of historical Mediterranean sharks, consistent with founding by a small number of Pacific colonizers. The consequent lack of diversity suggests serious challenges for the maintenance of this top predator and the Mediterranean ecosystem.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.