Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Geographical distribution of red and green Noctiluca scintillans

The dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans is one of the most important and abundant red tide organisms and it is distributed world-wide. It occurs in two forms. Red Noctiluca is heterotrophic and fills the role of one of the microzooplankton grazers in the foodweb. In contrast, green Noctiluca contains a photosynthetic symbiont Pedinomonas noctilucae (a prasinophyte), but it also feeds on other plankton when the food supply is abundant. In this review, we document the global distribution of these two forms and include the first maps of their global distribution. Red Noctiluca occurs widely in the temperate to sub-tropical coastal regions of the world. It occurs over a wide temperature range of about 10°C to 25°C and at higher salinities (generally not in estuaries). It is particularly abundant in high productivity areas such as upwelling or eutrophic areas where diatoms dominate since they are its preferred food source. Green Noctiluca is much more restricted to a temperature range of 25°C–30°C and mainly occurs in tropical waters of Southeast Asia, Bay of Bengal (east coast of India), in the eastern, western and northern Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and recently it has become very abundant in the Gulf of Oman. Red and green Noctiluca do overlap in their distribution in the eastern, northern and western Arabian Sea with a seasonal shift from green Noctiluca in the cooler winter convective mixing, higher productivity season, to red Noctiluca in the more oligotrophic warmer summer season.