Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

The meso-scale response of subarctic North Pacific seabird community structure to lower trophic level abundance and diversity

Understanding the mechanisms that structure communities and influence biodiversity are fundamental goals of ecology. To test the hypothesis that the abundance and diversity of upper-trophic level predators (seabirds) is related to the underlying abundance and diversity of their prey (zooplankton) and ecosystem-wide energy availability (primary production), we initiated a monitoring program in 2002 that jointly and repeatedly surveys seabird and zooplankton populations across a 7,500 km British Columbia-Bering Sea-Japan transect. Seabird distributions were recorded by a single observer (MH) using a strip-width technique, mesozooplankton samples were collected with a Continuous Plankton Recorder, and primary production levels were derived using the appropriate satellite parameters and the Vertically Generalized Production Model (Behrenfeld and Falkowski 1997). Each trophic level showed clear spatio-temporal patterns over the course of the study. The strongest relationship between seabird abundance and diversity and the lower trophic levels was observed in March/April ('spring') and significant relationships were also found through June/July ('summer'). No discernable relationships were observed during the September/October ('fall') months. Overall, mesozooplankton abundance and biomass explained the dominant portion of seabird abundance and diversity indices (richness, Simpson's Index, and evenness), while primary production was only related to seabird richness. These findings underscore the notion that perturbations of ocean productivity and lower trophic level ecosystem constituents influenced by climate change, such as shifts in timing (phenology) and synchronicity (match-mismatch), could impart far-reaching consequences throughout the marine food web.

Are Fast Responses More Random? Testing the Effect of Response Time on Scale in an Online Choice Experiment

Scepticism over stated preference surveys conducted online revolves around the concerns over “professional respondents” who might rush through the questionnaire without sufficiently considering the information provided. To gain insight on the validity of this phenomenon and test the effect of response time on choice randomness, this study makes use of a recently conducted choice experiment survey on ecological and amenity effects of an offshore windfarm in the UK. The positive relationship between self-rated and inferred attribute attendance and response time is taken as evidence for a link between response time and cognitive effort. Subsequently, the generalised multinomial logit model is employed to test the effect of response time on scale, which indicates the weight of the deterministic relative to the error component in the random utility model. Results show that longer response time increases scale, i.e. decreases choice randomness. This positive scale effect of response time is further found to be non-linear and wear off at some point beyond which extreme response time decreases scale. While response time does not systematically affect welfare estimates, higher response time increases the precision of such estimates. These effects persist when self-reported choice certainty is controlled for. Implications of the results for online stated preference surveys and further research are discussed.

Quantifying pursuit diving seabirds' associations with fine-scale physical features in a high tidal energy environment

The rapid increase in the number of tidal stream turbine arrays will create novel and unprecedented levels of anthropogenic activity within habitats characterized by horizontal current speeds exceeding 2 ms−1. However, the potential impacts on pursuit‐diving seabirds exploiting these tidal stream environments remain largely unknown. Identifying similarities between the fine‐scale physical features (100s of metres) suitable for array installations, and those associated with foraging pursuit‐diving seabirds, could identify which species are most vulnerable to either collisions with moving components, or displacement from these installations. A combination of vessel‐based observational surveys, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model outputs and hydroacoustic seabed surveys provided concurrent measures of foraging distributions and physical characteristics at a fine temporal (15 min) and spatial (500 m) resolution across a tidal stream environment suitable for array installations, during both breeding and non‐breeding seasons. These data sets were then used to test for associations between foraging pursuit‐diving seabirds (Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, black guillemots Cepphus grylle, common guillemots Uria aalge, European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis) and physical features. These species were associated with areas of fast horizontal currents, slow horizontal currents, high turbulence, downward vertical currents and also hard–rough seabeds. The identity and strength of associations differed among species, and also within species between seasons, indicative of interspecific and intraspecific variations in habitat use. However, Atlantic puffins were associated particularly strongly with areas of fast horizontal currents during breeding seasons, and European shags with areas of rough–hard seabeds and downward vertical currents during non‐breeding seasons. Synthesis and applications. Atlantic puffins’ strong association with fast horizontal current speeds indicates that they are particularly likely to interact with installations during breeding seasons. Any post‐installation monitoring and mitigation measures should therefore focus on this species and season. The multi‐species associations with high turbulence and downward vertical currents, which often coincide with fast horizontal current speeds, also highlight useful pre‐installation mitigation measures via the omission of devices from these areas, reducing the overall likelihood of interactions. Environmental impact assessments (EIA) generally involve once‐a‐month surveys across 2‐year periods. However, the approaches used in this study show that more focussed surveys can greatly benefit management strategies aiming to reduce the likelihood of negative impacts by facilitating the development of targeted mitigation measures. It is therefore recommended that these approaches contribute towards EIA within development sites.