Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere.

Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Empirically modelling the potential effects of changes in temperature and prey availability on the growth of cod larvae in UK shelf seas

It has been hypothesized that changes in zooplankton community structure over the past four decades led to reduced growth and survival of prerecruit Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and that this was a key factor underlying poor year classes, contributing to stock collapse, and inhibiting the recovery of stocks around the UK. To evaluate whether observed changes in plankton abundance, species composition and temperature could have led to periods of poorer growth of cod larvae, we explored the effect of prey availability and temperature on early larval growth using an empirical trophodynamic model. Prey availability was parameterized using species abundance data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Our model suggests that the observed changes in plankton community structure in the North Sea may have had less impact on cod larval growth, at least for the first 40 days following hatching, than previously suggested. At least in the short term, environmental and prey conditions should be able to sustain growth of cod larvae and environmental changes acting on this early life stage should not limit stock recovery.

Temporal and spatial variation in the Nazaré Canyon (Western Iberian margin): Inter-annual and canyon heterogeneity effects on meiofauna biomass and diversity

The Nazaré Canyon on the Portuguese Margin (NE Atlantic) was sampled during spring-summer for three consecutive years (2005–2007), permitting the first inter-annual study of the meiofaunal communities at the Iberian Margin at two abyssal depths (~3500 m and ~4400 m). Using new and already published data, the meiofauna standing stocks (abundance and biomass) and nematode structural and functional diversity were investigated in relation to the sediment biogeochemistry (e.g. organic carbon, nitrogen, chlorophyll a, phaeopigments) and grain size. A conspicuous increase in sand content from 2005 to 2006 and decrease of phytodetritus at both sites, suggested the occurrence of one or more physical disturbance events. Nematode standing stocks and trophic diversity decreased after these events, seemingly followed by a recovery/recolonisation period in 2007, which was strongly correlated with an increase in the quantity and bioavailability of phytodetrital organic matter supplied. Changes in meiofauna assemblages, however, also differed between stations, likely because of the contrasting hydrodynamic and food supply conditions. Higher meiofauna and nematode abundances, biomass and trophic complexity were found at the shallowest canyon station, where the quantity, quality and bioavailability of food material were higher than at the deeper site. The present results suggest that even though inter-annual variations in the sedimentary environment can regulate the meiofauna in the abyssal Nazaré Canyon, heterogeneity between sampling locations in the canyon were more pronounced.

Recovery from TBT pollution in English Channel environments: A problem solved?

Following recognition of effects in the 1980s, tributyltin (TBT) has been monitored at sites in the English Channel to evaluate the prognosis for biota – spanning the introduction of restrictions on TBT use on small boats and the recent phase-out on the global fleet. We describe how persistence and impact of TBT in clams Scrobicularia plana has changed during this period in Southampton Water and Poole Harbour. TBT contamination (and loss) in water, sediment and clams reflects the abundance and type of vessel activity: half-times in sediment (up to 8y in Poole, 33y in Southampton) are longest near commercial shipping. Recovery of clam populations – slowest in TBT-contaminated deposits – provides a useful biological measure of legislative efficacy in estuaries. On rocky shores, recovery from imposex in Nucella lapillus is evident at many sites but, near ports, is prolonged by shipping impacts, including sediment legacy, for example, in the Fal.