Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Diversity of luciferase sequences and bioluminescence production in Baltic Sea Alexandrium ostenfeldii

The toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii is the only bioluminescent bloom-forming phytoplankton in coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. We analysed partial luciferase gene (lcf) sequences and bioluminescence production in Baltic A. ostenfeldii bloom populations to assess the distribution and consistency of the trait in the Baltic Sea, and to evaluate applications for early detection of toxic blooms. Lcf was consistently present in 61 Baltic Sea A. ostenfeldii strains isolated from six separate bloom sites. All Baltic Sea strains except one produced bioluminescence. In contrast, the presence of lcf and the ability to produce bioluminescence did vary among strains from other parts of Europe. In phylogenetic analyses, lcf sequences of Baltic Sea strains clustered separately from North Sea strains, but variation between Baltic Sea strains was not sufficient to distinguish between bloom populations. Clustering of the lcf marker was similar to internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences with differences being minor and limited to the lowest hierarchical clusters, indicating a similar rate of evolution of the two genes. In relation to monitoring, the consistent presence of lcf and close coupling of lcf with bioluminescence suggests that bioluminescence can be used to reliably monitor toxic bloom-forming A. ostenfeldii in the Baltic Sea.

Diversity of luciferase sequences and bioluminescence production in Baltic Sea Alexandrium ostenfeldii

The toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii is the only bioluminescent bloom-forming phytoplankton in coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. We analysed partial luciferase gene (lcf) sequences and bioluminescence production in Baltic A. ostenfeldii bloom populations to assess the distribution and consistency of the trait in the Baltic Sea, and to evaluate applications for early detection of toxic blooms. Lcf was consistently present in 61 Baltic Sea A. ostenfeldii strains isolated from six separate bloom sites. All Baltic Sea strains except one produced bioluminescence. In contrast, the presence of lcf and the ability to produce bioluminescence did vary among strains from other parts of Europe. In phylogenetic analyses, lcf sequences of Baltic Sea strains clustered separately from North Sea strains, but variation between Baltic Sea strains was not sufficient to distinguish between bloom populations. Clustering of the lcf marker was similar to internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences with differences being minor and limited to the lowest hierarchical clusters, indicating a similar rate of evolution of the two genes. In relation to monitoring, the consistent presence of lcf and close coupling of lcf with bioluminescence suggests that bioluminescence can be used to reliably monitor toxic bloom-forming A. ostenfeldii in the Baltic Sea.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Simultaneous Determination Of Fluctuating Age Structure And Mortality From Field Data

The use of a Leslie matrix for analysis of a population normally implies that the age structure of the population is known. However, this restriction can be overcome if the population can be partitioned into recognisably different stages, and some information on stage duration and fecundity is available, in which case the age structure may be determined by the analysis itself. As an example of this approach we consider the estimation of the mortality rate applying to a population from a sequence of observed stage frequency vectors. The technique does not require that the population has attained a stable age structure nor that distinct cohorts can be recognised.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.