9 resultados para Regressão stepwise
em Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)
Resumo:
Recently, large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans have been detected in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages were found with a northward extension of more than ° in latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These changes were attributed to regional increase in sea surface temperature. Here, we have extended these studies to examine long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon in relation to hydro-meteorological forcing in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. We found highly significant relationships between (1) long-term changes in all three trophic levels, (2) sea surface temperature in the northeastern Atlantic, (3) Northern Hemisphere temperature and (4) the North Atlantic Oscillation. The similarities detected between plankton, salmon, temperature and hydro-climatic parameters are also seen in their cyclical variability and in a stepwise shift that started after a pronounced increase in Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies at the end of the 1970s. All biological variables show a pronounced change which started after circa 1982 for euphausiids (decline), 1984 for the total abundance of small copepods (increase), 1986 for phytoplankton biomass (increase) and Calanus finmarchicus (decrease) and 1988 for salmon (decrease). This cascade of biological events led to an exceptional period, which is identified after 1986 to present and followed another shift in large-scale hydro-climatic variables and sea surface temperature. This regional temperature increase therefore appears to be an important parameter that is at present governing the dynamic equilibrium of northeast Atlantic pelagic ecosystems with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes and fisheries.
Resumo:
In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north-east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long-term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlantic, either: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basin-scale atmospheric alteration of the pressure field between the Azores high pressure cell and the Icelandic Low; or (2) the Gulf Stream Index (GSI), which measures the latitudinal position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Recent work has shown that the changes in the GSI are coupled with the NAO and Pacific Southern Oscillation with a 2 year lag. The plankton variability is also possibly linked to changes observed in the distribution and flux of water masses in the surface, intermediate and deep waters of the North Atlantic. For example, in the last two decades, the extent and location of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, Labrador Sea Intermediate Water and Norwegian Sea intermediate and upper-layer water has altered considerably. This paper discusses the extent to which observed changes in plankton abundance and distribution may be linked to this basin-scale variability in hydrodynamics. The results are also placed within the context of global climate warming and the possible effects of the observed melting of Arctic permafrost and sea ice on the subpolar North Atlantic.
Resumo:
The North Sea is one of the most biologically productive ecosystems in the world and supports important fisheries. Climate-induced changes occurred in the pelagic ecosystems of the North Sea during the 1980s. These changes, which have been observed from phytoplankton to fish and among permanent (holoplankton) and temporary (meroplankton) plankton species, have resulted in alterations in plankton community composition and seasonality. Until now, the effects of climate-driven changes on biological linkages between pelagic and benthic ecosystems have not been examined. The present study indicates that changes in benthic organisms could have a profound effect on the trophodynamics of the pelagos. We demonstrate this by analyses of a long-term time series of North Sea plankton and sea surface temperature data. We discover that pronounced changes in the North Sea meroplankton, mainly related to an increased abundance and spatial distribution of the larvae of a benthic echinoderm, Echinocardium cordatum, result primarily from a stepwise increase in sea temperature after 1987 that has caused warmer conditions to occur earlier in the year than previously. Key stages of reproduction in E. cordatum, gametogenesis and spawning, appear to be influenced by winter and spring sea temperature and their larval development is affected by the quantity and quality of their phytoplankton food. Our analyses suggest that a new thermal regime in the North Sea in winter and spring may have benefited reproduction and survival in this benthic species. As a result, E. cordatum may be altering the trophodynamics of the summer pelagic ecosystem through competition between its larvae and holozooplankton taxa.
Resumo:
The 2-wk TLm of stepwise-acclimated Thais lapillus (L.) (>20 mm long) was 14.2–16.2%. salinity (S) at 5, 10, 15, and 20°C. The same TLm occurred at 10 °C after direct transfer of snails to the final salinity but stepwise-acclimated small snails (<20 mm) tolerated a significantly lower salinity (12.7%. S). Oxygen consumption rates () fit the allometric equation . Salinity and temperature had a significant effect on , which was highest at 30%. S and depressed at 17.5%. S and at 5°C. Ammonia excretion rates fit the allometric equation . Both salinity and temperature affected . Ammonia excretion was significantly lower at 17.5 %. S than at higher salinities at 10, 15, and 20°C, but did not vary as a function of salinity at 5°C. Primary amines were lost from snails under all conditions without any obvious relationship with temperature or salinity. Primary-amine loss, expressed as a percentage of , was significantly higher at 17.5 %. S than at higher salinities. Oxygen : nitrogen ratios ranged from 4.2–15.6, indicating protein was the primary metabolic substrate, and were highest at 15 °C and lowest at 5 °C. Snails withstood 89 days starvation without mortality at 10°C. Oxygen consumption of snails declined by 28% during starvation due to a 37% decline in dry weight; consequently, weight-specific respiration rate increased by 17%. The intercept (a) for the allometric equations did not change during starvation. Ammonia excretion increased during starvation, and primary-amine loss increased until Day 21, then declined. Oxygen: nitrogen ratios declined from 14 to 8, indicating an increased catabolism of protein during starvation.
Resumo:
The abundance of wild salmon (Salmo salar) in the North Atlantic has declined markedly since the late 1980s as a result of increased marine mortality that coincided with a marked rise in sea temperature in oceanic foraging areas. There is substantial evidence to show that temperature governs the growth, survival, and maturation of salmon during their marine migrations through either direct or indirect effects. In an earlier study (2003), long-term changes in three trophic levels (salmon, zooplankton, and phytoplankton) were shown to be correlated significantly with sea surface temperature (SST) and northern hemisphere temperature (NHT). A sequence of trophic changes ending with a stepwise decline in the total nominal catch of North Atlantic salmon (regime shift in ∼1986/1987) was superimposed on a trend to a warmer dynamic regime. Here, the earlier study is updated with catch and abundance data to 2010, confirming earlier results and detecting a new abrupt shift in ∼1996/1997. Although correlations between changes in salmon, plankton, and temperature are reinforced, the significance of the correlations is reduced because the temporal autocorrelation of time-series substantially increased due to a monotonic trend in the time-series, probably related to global warming. This effect may complicate future detection of effects of climate change on natural systems.
Resumo:
Genetic analysis of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples is enabling greater taxonomic resolution and the study of plankton population structure. Here, we present some results from the genetic analysis of CPR samples collected in the North Sea and north-eastern Atlantic that reveal the impacts of climate on benthic-pelagic coupling and the food web. We show that pronounced changes in the North Sea meroplankton are related to an increased abundance and spatial distribution of the larvae of the benthic echinoderm, Echinocardium cordatum. Key stages of reproduction in E. cordatum, gametogenesis and spawning, are influenced by winter and spring sea temperature (January-May). A stepwise increase in sea temperature after 1987, which has created warmer conditions earlier in the year, together with increased summer phytoplankton, may benefit the reproduction and survival of this benthic species. Competition between the larvae of E. cordatum and other holozooplanlcton taxa may now be altering the trophodynamics of the summer pelagic ecosystem. In the north-eastern Atlantic the genetic analysis of fish larvae sampled by the CPR has revealed an unprecedented increase in the abundance of juvenile snake pipefish, Entelurus aequoreiis since 2002. We argue that increased sea surface temperatures in winter and spring when the eggs of E. aqueoreus, which are brooded by the male, are developing and the young larvae are growing in the plankton are a likely cause. The increased abundance of this species in Atlantic and adjacent European seas already appears to be influencing the marine food web.
Resumo:
There is accumulating evidence suggesting that a regime shift occurred in the North Atlantic during the mid-eighties. This shift has been reported primarily from Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data as a stepwise change in plankton abundance and copepod community structure. Here we analyse the CPR data for appendicularian abundance to show that a similar stepwise increase occurred in the abundance of appendicularians during the mid-eighties. Furthermore, we compare these results to data recorded by other zooplankton time series programmes to show that a similar abrupt increase in appendicularian abundance during the mid-early eighties has also been recorded in other areas. The fact that such a change occurred at locations so distant apart as Helgoland Roads in the North Sea or the White Sea in the Arctic suggests that these changes have a global origin. The strong dependence of appendicularian phenology with temperature points out to direct links to global climate change.
Resumo:
Marine ecosystems provide many ecosystem goods and services. However, these ecosystems and the benefits they create for humans are subject to competing uses and increasing pressures. As a consequence of the increasing threats to the marine environment, several regulations require applying an ecosystem-based approach for managing the marine environment. Within the Mediterranean Sea, in 2008, the Contracting Parties of the Mediterranean Action Plan decided to progressively apply the Ecosystem Approach (EcAp) with the objective of achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) for 2018. To assess the Environmental Status, the EcAp proposes 11 Ecological Objectives, each of which requires a set of relevant indicators to be integrated. Progress towards the EcAp entails a gradual and important challenge for North-African countries, and efforts have to be initiated to propose and discuss methods. Accordingly, to enhance the capacity of North-African countries to implement EcAp and particularly to propose and discuss indicators and methods to assess GES, the aim of this manuscript is to identify the practical problems and gaps found at each stage of the Environmental Status assessment process. For this purpose, a stepwise method has been proposed to assess the Environmental Status using Ecologic Objective 5-Eutrophication as example.
Resumo:
Marine ecosystems provide many ecosystem goods and services. However, these ecosystems and the benefits they create for humans are subject to competing uses and increasing pressures. As a consequence of the increasing threats to the marine environment, several regulations require applying an ecosystem-based approach for managing the marine environment. Within the Mediterranean Sea, in 2008, the Contracting Parties of the Mediterranean Action Plan decided to progressively apply the Ecosystem Approach (EcAp) with the objective of achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) for 2018. To assess the Environmental Status, the EcAp proposes 11 Ecological Objectives, each of which requires a set of relevant indicators to be integrated. Progress towards the EcAp entails a gradual and important challenge for North-African countries, and efforts have to be initiated to propose and discuss methods. Accordingly, to enhance the capacity of North-African countries to implement EcAp and particularly to propose and discuss indicators and methods to assess GES, the aim of this manuscript is to identify the practical problems and gaps found at each stage of the Environmental Status assessment process. For this purpose, a stepwise method has been proposed to assess the Environmental Status using Ecologic Objective 5-Eutrophication as example.