Predator–prey reversal: A possible mechanism for ecosystem hysteresis in the North Sea?

Removal of large predatory fishes from marine ecosystems has resulted in persistent ecosystem shifts, with collapsed predator populations and super-abundant prey populations. One explanation for these shifts is reversals of predator–prey roles that generate internal feedbacks in the ecosystems. Pelagic forage fish are often predators and competitors to the young life stages of their larger fish predators. I show that cod recruitment in the North Sea has been negatively related to the spawning-stock biomass of herring for the last 44 years. Herring, together with the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus, the major food for cod larvae, were the main predictors of cod recruitment. These predictors were of equivalent importance, worked additively, and explained different parts of the dynamics in cod recruitment. I suggest that intensive harvesting of cod has released herring from predator control, and that a large population of herring suppresses cod recruitment through predation on eggs and larvae. This feedback mechanism can promote alternative stable states and therefore cause hysteresis to occur under changing conditions; however, harvesting of herring might at present prevent a shift in the ecosystem to a herring-dominated state.

Heterospecific mating and species recognition in the planktonic marine copepods Temora stylifera and T. longicornis

Many planktonic copepods use diffusible pheromone or hydromechanical signals to remotely detect the presence of potential mates. To determine whether these mating signals also play a role in species recognition and mate choice, we observed and video recorded (3D) mate-finding and pursuit behaviors in heterospecific and conspecific mating crosses in a pair of congeneric, partially sympatric species (Temora stylifera and T. longicornis) in the laboratory. The species appear to have asymmetrical pre-mating isolation, with T. longicornis males readily pursuing T. stylifera females to mate contact and capture, but with little mate-finding activity observed in the reverse cross. Males of T. longicornis pursuing heterospecific females executed a number of behaviors known to facilitate successful pheromone trail following and mate capture in conspecific mating, including accelerated swimming in a ‘signal-scanning’ mode to recover a lost pheromone trail, reversal of the tracking direction in cases when the male initiated tracking in the incorrect direction, and accelerated swimming speeds when in the presence of a pheromone signal but prior to locating the trail. Detailed analyses of mate-tracking behavior in T. longicornis male × T. stylifera female crosses gave no indication that males were aware they were pursuing heterospecific females prior to mate contact, indicating that diffusible pheromone and hydromechanical signals are not used, either singly or in combination, for species recognition in this mating pair. Heterospecific mating attempts among sympatric, congeneric copepods may commonly proceed to mate capture, and incur fitness costs to either or both mating partners.

Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Coastal Zone Ecosystem Services: From science to values and decision making; a case study

This research is concerned with the following environmental research questions: socio-ecological system complexity, especially when valuing ecosystem services; ecosystems stock and services flow sustainability and valuation; the incorporation of scale issues when valuing ecosystem services; and the integration of knowledge from diverse disciplines for governance and decision making. In this case study, we focused on ecosystem services that can be jointly supplied but independently valued in economic terms: healthy climate (via carbon sequestration and storage), food (via fisheries production in nursery grounds), and nature recreation (nature watching and enjoyment). We also explored the issue of ecosystem stock and services flow, and we provide recommendations on how to value stock and flows of ecosystem services via accounting and economic values respectively. We considered broadly comparable estuarine systems located on the English North Sea coast: the Blackwater estuary and the Humber estuary. In the past, these two estuaries have undergone major land-claim. Managed realignment is a policy through which previously claimed intertidal habitats are recreated allowing the enhancement of the ecosystem services provided by saltmarshes. In this context, we investigated ecosystem service values, through biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates. Using an optimistic (extended conservation of coastal ecosystems) and a pessimistic (loss of coastal ecosystems because of, for example, European policy reversal) scenario, we find that context dependency, and hence value transfer possibilities, vary among ecosystem services and benefits. As a result, careful consideration in the use and application of value transfer, both in biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates, is advocated to supply reliable information for policy making.

Pathogenic challenge reveals immune trade-off in mussels exposed to reduced seawater pH and increased temperature

Mussels tolerant to seawater pH's that are projected to occur by 2300 due to ocean acidification.•Exposure to pH 6.50 reduced mussel immune response, yet in the absence of a pathogen.•Subsequent pathogenic challenge led to a reversal of immune suppression at pH 6.50.•Study highlights the importance of undertaking multiple stressor exposures.•Shows a need to consider physiological trade-offs and measure responses functionally