Reply to comment: is climate change the most likely driver of range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters?

The comment by Votier et al. (2008) on our recently published article (Wynn et al. 2007) contains two main criticisms: (i) that our analytical approach is inappropriate and (ii) that we have failed to acknowledge other factors that may have contributed to the change in Balearic Shearwater numbers recorded throughout northwest European waters. We strongly disagree with both these criticisms.

Impacts of climate change on non-native species

Anthropogenic changes to climate and extreme weather events have already led to the introduction of non-native species (NNS) to the North Atlantic. Regional climate models predict that there will be a continuation of the current trend of warming throughout the 21st century providing enhanced opportunities for NNS at each stage of the invasion process. Increasing evidence is now available to show that climate change has led to the northwards range expansion of a number of NNS in the UK and Ireland, such as the Asian club tunicate Styela clava and the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Providing definitive evidence though of the direct linkage between climate change and the spread of the majority of NNS is extremely challenging, due to other confounding factors, such as anthropogenic activity. Localised patterns of water movement and food supply may also be complicating the overall pattern of northwards range expansion, by preventing the expansion of some NNS, such as the slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata and the Chilean oyster Ostrea chilensis, from a particular region. A greater understanding of the other aspects of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2, such as increased rainfall, heat waves, frequency of storm events, and ocean acidification may aid in increasing the confidence that scientists have in predicting the long term influence of climate change on the introduction, spread and establishment of NNS.

Contrasting transcriptome response to thermal stress in two key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis

Climate change has already led to the range expansion of warm-water plankton assemblages in the northeast Atlantic and the corresponding range contraction of colder-water species. The temperate copepod Calanus finmarchicus is predicted to shift farther northward into polar waters traditionally dominated by the arctic copepod C. glacialis. To identify temperaturemediated changes in gene expression that may be critical for the thermal acclimation and resilience of the 2 Calanus spp., we conducted a whole transcriptome profiling using RNA-seq on an Ion Torrent platform. Transcriptome responses of C. finmarchicus and C. glacialis from Disko Bay, west Greenland, were investigated under realistic thermal stresses (at + 5, +10 and +15°C) for 4 h and 6 d. C. finmarchicus showed a strong response to temperature and duration of stress, involving up-regulation of genes related to protein folding, transcription, translation and metabolism. In sharp contrast, C. glacialis displayed only low-magnitude changes in gene expression in response to temperature and duration of stress. Differences in the thermal responses of the 2 species, particularly the lack of thermal stress response in C. glacialis, are in line with laboratory and field observations and suggest a vulnerability of C. glacialis to climate change.

Facing the future: the importance of substratum features for ecological engineering of artificial habitats in the rocky intertidal

Coastal defences are proliferating in response to climate change, leading to the creation of more vertical substrata. Efforts are being made to mitigate their impacts and create novel habitats to promote biodiversity. Little is known about the effect of aspect (i.e. north–south directionality) and inclination on intertidal biodiversity in artificial habitats. Artificial and natural habitats were compared to assess the role of aspect and substratum inclination in determining patterns of biodiversity at two tidal heights (high and mid). We also compared grazing activity between north- and south-facing surfaces in natural habitats to examine the potential for differential grazing pressure to affect community structure and functioning. Results were variable but some clear patterns emerged. Inclination had no effect on biodiversity or abundance. There was a general trend towards greater taxon richness and abundance on north-facing than south-facing substrata in natural and artificial habitats. On natural shores, the abundance and grazing activity of ‘southern’ limpets (i.e. Patella depressa) was greater on south-facing than north-facing substrata, with possible implications for further range-expansion. These results highlight the importance of incorporating shaded habitats in the construction of artificial habitats. These habitats may represent an important refuge from grazing pressure and thermal and desiccation stress in a warming climate.

Facing the future: the importance of substratum features for ecological engineering of artificial habitats in the rocky intertidal

Coastal defences are proliferating in response to climate change, leading to the creation of more vertical substrata. Efforts are being made to mitigate their impacts and create novel habitats to promote biodiversity. Little is known about the effect of aspect (i.e. north–south directionality) and inclination on intertidal biodiversity in artificial habitats. Artificial and natural habitats were compared to assess the role of aspect and substratum inclination in determining patterns of biodiversity at two tidal heights (high and mid). We also compared grazing activity between north- and south-facing surfaces in natural habitats to examine the potential for differential grazing pressure to affect community structure and functioning. Results were variable but some clear patterns emerged. Inclination had no effect on biodiversity or abundance. There was a general trend towards greater taxon richness and abundance on north-facing than south-facing substrata in natural and artificial habitats. On natural shores, the abundance and grazing activity of ‘southern’ limpets (i.e. Patella depressa) was greater on south-facing than north-facing substrata, with possible implications for further range-expansion. These results highlight the importance of incorporating shaded habitats in the construction of artificial habitats. These habitats may represent an important refuge from grazing pressure and thermal and desiccation stress in a warming climate.

What determines the likelihood of species discovery in marine holozooplankton: is size, range or depth important?

The relationship between date of first description and size, geographic range and depth of occurrence is investigated for 18 orders of marine holozooplankton (comprising over 4000 species). Results of multiple regression analyses suggest that all attributes are linked, which reflects the complex interplay between them. Partial correlation coefficients suggest that geographic range is the most important predictor of description date, and shows an inverse relationship. By contrast, size is generally a poor indicator of description date, which probably mirrors the size-independent way in which specimens are collected, though there is clearly a positive relationship between both size and depth (for metabolic/trophic reasons), and size and geographic range. There is also a positive relationship between geographic range and depth that probably reflects the near constant nature of the deep-water environment and the wide-ranging currents to be found there. Although we did not explicitly incorporate either abundance or location into models predicting the date of first description, neither should be ignored.

Range extension and reproduction of the barnacle Balanus perforatus in the eastern English Channel

The distribution of the warm-water barnacle, Balanus perforatus, was surveyed along the south coast of England and the north-east coast of France between 1993 and 2001, repeating work carried out between the 1940s and 1960s. The species has recovered from catastrophic mortality during the severe winter of 1962–1963 and was found over 120 km (UK) and 190 km (France) east of previous records on both sides of the Channel. The presence of the species in the eastern Channel refutes suggestions in the 1950s that larvae, and hence adults, would not be found east of the Isle of Wight because of reproductive sterility close to the limits of distribution. Brooding of specimens translocated to Bembridge, Isle of Wight, commenced in May, earlier than previously observed in British waters, and continued until September. The stage of embryo development at Bembridge in mid-August was comparable to that of the large population at Lyme Regis, Dorset 100 km further west. However the size of brood per standard body weight was greater at Lyme Regis. Factors influencing the rate of colonization and further geographic range extension of the species as a possible result of climate change, are discussed.