Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

Changes in development timing and cohort width of Neocalanus plumchrus degree ' flemingeri copepods in the eastern North Pacific

Neocalanus plumchrus/flemingeri copepods make up a large proportion of spring mesozooplankton biomass and are a valuable nutritional source for many higher trophic levels. Copepodites through to sub-adult stage are present in surface waters for a relatively short period of time each spring, and the date of maximum biomass has been calculated as the date when 50% of the population were at the sub-adult, CV stage. This index allows quite a precise date to be calculated from relatively infrequent sampling and interannual comparisons between 1957 and 2004 have demonstrated that the timing of peak abundance is significantly advanced in warmer years. However, recent data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey, which samples the surface NE Pacific more frequently during spring, has found that maximum numbers of CV copepodites occur after the 50% point is reached so that maximum biomass occurs some weeks later than predicted by this index (although comparisons between years show that the magnitude of the timing shift is similar). Comparisons with depth-stratified profiles from the BIONESS show that this is not just due to single-depth near-surface sampling by the CPR. We speculate on the cause of this change which could be related to the width of the cohort (which appears to now be narrower, at least in warm years) or the length of time that the CV stage needs to spend in the surface accumulating lipid before beginning diapause. A narrower cohort has implications for predators who will have less time to take advantage of this food source.

Mesoscale fronts as foraging habitats: composite front mapping reveals oceanographic drivers of habitat use for a pelagic seabird

The oceanographic drivers of marine vertebrate habitat use are poorly understood yet fundamental to our knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Here, we use composite front mapping and high-resolution GPS tracking to determine the significance of mesoscale oceanographic fronts as physical drivers of foraging habitat selection in northern gannets Morus bassanus. We tracked 66 breeding gannets from a Celtic Sea colony over 2 years and used residence time to identify area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Composite front maps identified thermal and chlorophyll-a mesoscale fronts at two different temporal scales—(i) contemporaneous fronts and (ii) seasonally persistent frontal zones. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), with generalized estimating equations (GEE-GAMs) to account for serial autocorrelation in tracking data, we found that gannets do not adjust their behaviour in response to contemporaneous fronts. However, ARS was more likely to occur within spatially predictable, seasonally persistent frontal zones (GAMs). Our results provide proof of concept that composite front mapping is a useful tool for studying the influence of oceanographic features on animal movements. Moreover, we highlight that frontal persistence is a crucial element of the formation of pelagic foraging hotspots for mobile marine vertebrates.

Can benthic community structure be used to predict the process of bioturbation in real ecosystems

Disentangling the roles of environmental change and natural environmental variability on biologically mediated ecosystem processes is paramount to predict future marine ecosystem functioning. Bioturbation, the biogenic mixing of sediments, has a regulating role in marine biogeochemical processes. However, our understanding of bioturbation as a community level process and of its environmental drivers is still limited by loose use of terminology, and a lack of consensus about what bioturbation is. To help resolve these challenges, this empirical study investigated the links between four different attributes of bioturbation (bioturbation depth, activity and distance, and biodiffusive transport); the ability of an index of bioturbation (BPc) to predict each of them; and their relation to seasonality, in a shallow coastal system – the Western Channel Observatory, UK. Bioturbation distance depended on changes in benthic community structure, while the other three attributes were more directly influenced by seasonality in food availability. In parallel, BPc successfully predicted bioturbation distance but not the other attributes of bioturbation. This study therefore highlights that community bioturbation results from this combination of processes responding to environmental variability at different time-scales. However, community level measurements of bioturbation across environmental variability are still scarce, and BPc is calculated using commonly available data on benthic community structure and the functional classification of invertebrates. Therefore, BPc could be used to support the growth of landscape scale bioturbation research, but future uses of the index need to consider which bioturbation attributes the index actually predicts. As BPc predicts bioturbation distance, estimated here using a random-walk model applicable to community settings, studies using either of the metrics should be directly comparable and contribute to a more integrated future for bioturbation research.

Effect of habitat fragmentation on the macroinvertebrate infaunal communities associated with the seagrass Zostera marina

1. The effect of habitat fragmentation was investigated in two adjacent, yet separate, intertidal Zostera marina beds in the Salcombe Estuary, Devon, UK. The seagrass bed on the west bank comprised a continuous meadow of ca. 2.3 ha, whilst the bed on the east bank of the estuary was fragmented into patches of 6–9 m2.2. Three 10 cm diameter core samples for infaunal macroinvertebrates were taken from three stations within each bed. No significant difference was found in univariate community parameters between beds, or in measured seagrass parameters. However, multivariate analysis revealed a significant difference in community composition, due mainly to small changes in species abundance rather than differences in the species present.3. The species contributing most to the dissimilarity between the two communities were polychaetes generally associated with unvegetated habitats (e.g. Magelona mirabilis) and found to be more common in the fragmented bed.4. A significant difference in median grain size and sorting coefficient was recorded between the two beds, and median grain size was found to be the variable best explaining multivariate community patterns.5. The results of the study provide evidence for the effects of habitat fragmentation on the communities associated with seagrass beds, habitats which are of high conservation importance. As the infaunal community is perhaps intuitively the component least likely to be affected by fragmentation at the scale observed, the significant difference in community composition recorded has consequences for more sensitive and high-profile parts of the biota (e.g. fish), and thus for the conservation of seagrass habitats and their associated communities.

Application of computer-aided tomography techniques to visualize kelp holdfast structure reveals the importance of habitat complexity for supporting marine biodiversity

Ecosystem engineers that increase habitat complexity are keystone species in marine systems, increasing shelter and niche availability, and therefore biodiversity. For example, kelp holdfasts form intricate structures and host the largest number of organisms in kelp ecosystems. However, methods that quantify 3D habitat complexity have only seldom been used in marine habitats, and never in kelp holdfast communities. This study investigated the role of kelp holdfasts (Laminaria hyperborea) in supporting benthic faunal biodiversity. Computer-aided tomography (CT-) scanning was used to quantify the three-dimensional geometrical complexity of holdfasts, including volume, surface area and surface fractal dimension (FD). Additionally, the number of haptera, number of haptera per unit of volume, and age of kelps were estimated. These measurements were compared to faunal biodiversity and community structure, using partial least-squares regression and multivariate ordination. Holdfast volume explained most of the variance observed in biodiversity indices, however all other complexity measures also strongly contributed to the variance observed. Multivariate ordinations further revealed that surface area and haptera per unit of volume accounted for the patterns observed in faunal community structure. Using 3D image analysis, this study makes a strong contribution to elucidate quantitative mechanisms underlying the observed relationship between biodiversity and habitat complexity. Furthermore, the potential of CT-scanning as an ecological tool is demonstrated, and a methodology for its use in future similar studies is established. Such spatially resolved imager analysis could help identify structurally complex areas as biodiversity hotspots, and may support the prioritization of areas for conservation.

Application of computer-aided tomography techniques to visualize kelp holdfast structure reveals the importance of habitat complexity for supporting marine biodiversity

Ecosystem engineers that increase habitat complexity are keystone species in marine systems, increasing shelter and niche availability, and therefore biodiversity. For example, kelp holdfasts form intricate structures and host the largest number of organisms in kelp ecosystems. However, methods that quantify 3D habitat complexity have only seldom been used in marine habitats, and never in kelp holdfast communities. This study investigated the role of kelp holdfasts (Laminaria hyperborea) in supporting benthic faunal biodiversity. Computer-aided tomography (CT-) scanning was used to quantify the three-dimensional geometrical complexity of holdfasts, including volume, surface area and surface fractal dimension (FD). Additionally, the number of haptera, number of haptera per unit of volume, and age of kelps were estimated. These measurements were compared to faunal biodiversity and community structure, using partial least-squares regression and multivariate ordination. Holdfast volume explained most of the variance observed in biodiversity indices, however all other complexity measures also strongly contributed to the variance observed. Multivariate ordinations further revealed that surface area and haptera per unit of volume accounted for the patterns observed in faunal community structure. Using 3D image analysis, this study makes a strong contribution to elucidate quantitative mechanisms underlying the observed relationship between biodiversity and habitat complexity. Furthermore, the potential of CT-scanning as an ecological tool is demonstrated, and a methodology for its use in future similar studies is established. Such spatially resolved imager analysis could help identify structurally complex areas as biodiversity hotspots, and may support the prioritization of areas for conservation.

Tillin, H. & Tyler-Walters, H., 2014. Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with marine activities. Phase 2 Report – Literature review and sensitivity assessments for ecological groups for circalittoral and offshore Level 5 biotopes. JNCC Report No. 512B, 260 pp.

Human activities within the marine environment give rise to a number of pressures on seabed habitats. Improved understanding of the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats is required to underpin the management advice provided for Marine Protected Areas, as well as supporting other UK marine monitoring and assessment work. The sensitivity of marine sedimentary habitats to a range of pressures induced by human activities has previously been systematically assessed using approaches based on expert judgement for Defra Project MB0102 (Tillin et al. 2010). This previous work assessed sensitivity at the level of the broadscale habitat and therefore the scores were typically expressed as a range due to underlying variation in the sensitivity of the constituent biotopes. The objective of this project was to reduce the uncertainty around identifying the sensitivity of selected subtidal sedimentary habitats by assessing sensitivity, at a finer scale and incorporating information on the biological assemblage, for 33 Level 5 circalittoral and offshore biotopes taken from the Marine Habitat Classification of Britain and Ireland (Connor et al. 2004). Two Level 6 sub-biotopes were also included in this project as these contain distinctive characterising species that differentiate them from the Level 5 parent biotope. Littoral, infralittoral, reduced and variable salinity sedimentary habitats were excluded from this project as the scope was set for assessment of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. This project consisted of three Phases. • Phase 1 - define ecological groups based on similarities in the sensitivity of characterising species from the Level 5 and two Level 6 biotopes described above. • Phase 2 - produce a literature review of information on the resilience and resistance of characterising species of the ecological groups to pressures associated with activities in the marine environment. • Phase 3 - to produce sensitivity assessment ‘proformas’ based on the findings of Phase 2 for each ecological group. This report outlines results of Phase 2. The Tillin et al., (2010) sensitivity assessment methodology was modified to use the best available scientific evidence that could be collated within the project timescale. An extensive literature review was compiled, for peer reviewed and grey literature, to examine current understanding about the effects of pressures from human activities on circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities in UK continental shelf waters, together with information on factors that contribute to resilience (recovery) of marine species. This review formed the basis of an assessment of the sensitivity of the 16 ecological groups identified in Phase 1 of the project (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014). As a result: • the state of knowledge on the effects of each pressure on circalittoral and offshore benthos was reviewed; • the resistance, resilience and, hence, sensitivity of sixteen ecological groups, representing 96 characteristic species, were assessed for eight separate pressures; • each assessment was accompanied by a detailed review of the relevant evidence; Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • knowledge gaps and sources of uncertainty were identified for each group; • each assessment was accompanied by an assessment of the quality of the evidence, its applicability to the assessment and the degree of concordance (agreement) between the evidence, to highlight sources of uncertainty as an assessment of the overall confidence in the sensitivity assessment, and finally • limitations in the methodology and the application of sensitivity assessments were outlined. This process demonstrated that the ecological groups identified in Phase 1 (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014) were viable groups for sensitivity assessment, and could be used to represent the 33 circalittoral and offshore sediments biotopes identified at the beginning of the project. The results of the sensitivity assessments show: • the majority of species and hence ecological groups in sedimentary habitats are sensitive to physical change, especially loss of habitat and sediment extraction, and change in sediment type; • most sedimentary species are sensitive to physical damage, e.g. abrasion and penetration, although deep burrowing species (e.g. the Dublin Bay prawn - Nephrops norvegicus and the sea cucumber - Neopentadactyla mixta) are able to avoid damaging effects to varying degrees, depending on the depth of penetration and time of year; • changes in hydrography (wave climate, tidal streams and currents) can significantly affect sedimentary communities, depending on whether they are dominated by deposit, infaunal feeders or suspension feeders, and dependant on the nature of the sediment, which is itself modified by hydrography and depth; • sedentary species and ecological groups that dominate the top-layer of the sediment (either shallow burrowing or epifaunal) remain the most sensitive to physical damage; • mobile species (e.g. interstitial and burrowing amphipods, and perhaps cumaceans) are the least sensitive to physical change or damage, and hydrological change as they are already adapted to unstable, mobile substrata; • sensitivity to changes in organic enrichment and hence oxygen levels, is variable between species and ecological groups, depending on the exact habitat preferences of the species in question, although most species have at least a medium sensitivity to acute deoxygenation; • there is considerable evidence on the effects of bottom-contact fishing practices and aggregate dredging on sedimentary communities, although not all evidence is directly applicable to every ecological group; • there is lack of detailed information on the physiological tolerances (e.g. to oxygenation, salinity, and temperature), habitat preferences, life history and population dynamics of many species, so that inferences has been made from related species, families, or even the same phylum; • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of non-indigenous species on most ecological groups, and Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of electromagnetic fields and litter on any ecological group. The resultant report provides an up-to-date review of current knowledge about the effects of pressures resulting from human activities of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. It provides an evidence base to facilitate and support the provision of management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. However, such a review will require at least annual updates to take advantage of new evidence and new research as it becomes available. Also further work is required to test how ecological group assessments are best combined in practice to advise on the sensitivity of a range of sedimentary biotopes, including the 33 that were originally examined.