Have climate induced changes in zooplankton communities led to poor conditions for larval fish growth? A test on cod larvae on the UK shelf

Climate effects have been shown to be at least partly responsible for the reorganisation in the plankton ecosystem on the shelf seas of NW Europe over the last 50 years. Most fish larvae feed primarily on zooplankton, so changes in zooplankton quantity, quality and seasonal timing have been hypothesized to be a key factor affecting their survival. To investigate this we have implemented a 1-dimensional trophodynamic growth model of cod larvae for the waters around the UK covering the period 1960 to 2003. Larval growth is modelled as the difference between the amount of food absorbed by the larva and its various metabolic costs. Prey availability is based upon the biomass and size of available preys (i.e. adults and nauplii copepods and cladocerans) taken from the Continuous Plankton Recorder dataset. Temperature and wind forcing are also taken into account. Results suggest that observed changes in plankton community structure may have had less impact than previously suggested. This is because changes in prey availability may be compensated for by increased temperatures resulting in little overall impact on potential larval growth. Stock recovery, at least in the short term is likely to be more dependent upon conserving the year classes recruited to allow spawning stock biomass to rebuild. If as our model suggests, the larvae are still able to survive in the changing environment, reduction in fishing on the adults is needed to allow the stock to recover.

Empirically modelling the potential effects of changes in temperature and prey availability on the growth of cod larvae in UK shelf seas

It has been hypothesized that changes in zooplankton community structure over the past four decades led to reduced growth and survival of prerecruit Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and that this was a key factor underlying poor year classes, contributing to stock collapse, and inhibiting the recovery of stocks around the UK. To evaluate whether observed changes in plankton abundance, species composition and temperature could have led to periods of poorer growth of cod larvae, we explored the effect of prey availability and temperature on early larval growth using an empirical trophodynamic model. Prey availability was parameterized using species abundance data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Our model suggests that the observed changes in plankton community structure in the North Sea may have had less impact on cod larval growth, at least for the first 40 days following hatching, than previously suggested. At least in the short term, environmental and prey conditions should be able to sustain growth of cod larvae and environmental changes acting on this early life stage should not limit stock recovery.