Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

Predicting the Dispersal Potential of an Invasive Polychaete Pest along a Complex Coastal Biome

Boccardia proboscidea is a recently introduced polychaete in South Africa where it is a notorious pest of commercially reared abalone. Populations were originally restricted to abalone farms but a recent exodus into the wild at some localities has raised conservation concerns due to the species’ invasive status in other parts of the world. Here, we assessed the dispersal potential of B. proboscidea by using a population genetic and oceanographic modeling approach. Since the worm is in its incipient stages of a potential invasion, we used the closely related Polydora hoplura as a proxy due its similar reproductive strategy and its status as a pest of commercially reared oysters in the country. Populations of P. hoplura were sampled from seven different localities and a section of the mtDNA gene, Cyt b and the intron ATPSa was amplified. A high resolution model of the coastal waters around southern Africa was constructed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Larvae were represented by passive drifters that were deployed at specific points along the coast and dispersal was quantified after a 12-month integration period. Our results showed discordance between the genetic and modeling data. There was low genetic structure (Φ = 0.04 for both markers) and no geographic patterning of mtDNA and nDNA haplotypes. However, the dispersal model found limited connectivity around Cape Point—a major phylogeographic barrier on the southern African coast. This discordance was attributed to anthropogenic movement of larvae and adult worms due to vectors such as aquaculture and shipping. As such, we hypothesized that cryptic dispersal could be overestimating genetic connectivity. Though wild populations of B. proboscidea could become isolated due to the Cape Point barrier, anthropogenic movement may play the critical role in facilitating the dispersal and spread of this species on the southern African coast.

Predicting the Dispersal Potential of an Invasive Polychaete Pest along a Complex Coastal Biome

Boccardia proboscidea is a recently introduced polychaete in South Africa where it is a notorious pest of commercially reared abalone. Populations were originally restricted to abalone farms but a recent exodus into the wild at some localities has raised conservation concerns due to the species’ invasive status in other parts of the world. Here, we assessed the dispersal potential of B. proboscidea by using a population genetic and oceanographic modeling approach. Since the worm is in its incipient stages of a potential invasion, we used the closely related Polydora hoplura as a proxy due its similar reproductive strategy and its status as a pest of commercially reared oysters in the country. Populations of P. hoplura were sampled from seven different localities and a section of the mtDNA gene, Cyt b and the intron ATPSa was amplified. A high resolution model of the coastal waters around southern Africa was constructed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Larvae were represented by passive drifters that were deployed at specific points along the coast and dispersal was quantified after a 12-month integration period. Our results showed discordance between the genetic and modeling data. There was low genetic structure (Φ = 0.04 for both markers) and no geographic patterning of mtDNA and nDNA haplotypes. However, the dispersal model found limited connectivity around Cape Point—a major phylogeographic barrier on the southern African coast. This discordance was attributed to anthropogenic movement of larvae and adult worms due to vectors such as aquaculture and shipping. As such, we hypothesized that cryptic dispersal could be overestimating genetic connectivity. Though wild populations of B. proboscidea could become isolated due to the Cape Point barrier, anthropogenic movement may play the critical role in facilitating the dispersal and spread of this species on the southern African coast.