Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection prediction and management

Regime shifts are abrupt changes between contrasting, persistent states of any complex system. The potential for their prediction in the ocean and possible management depends upon the characteristics of the regime shifts: their drivers (from anthropogenic to natural), scale (from the local to the basin) and potential for management action (from adaptation to mitigation). We present a conceptual framework that will enhance our ability to detect, predict and manage regime shifts in the ocean, illustrating our approach with three well-documented examples: the North Pacific, the North Sea and Caribbean coral reefs. We conclude that the ability to adapt to, or manage, regime shifts depends upon their uniqueness, our understanding of their causes and linkages among ecosystem components and our observational capabilities.

Evaluating the SEVIRI Fire Thermal Anomaly Detection Algorithm across the Central African Republic Using the MODIS Active Fire Product

Satellite-based remote sensing of active fires is the only practical way to consistently and continuously monitor diurnal fluctuations in biomass burning from regional, to continental, to global scales. Failure to understand, quantify, and communicate the performance of an active fire detection algorithm, however, can lead to improper interpretations of the spatiotemporal distribution of biomass burning, and flawed estimates of fuel consumption and trace gas and aerosol emissions. This work evaluates the performance of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) Fire Thermal Anomaly (FTA) detection algorithm using seven months of active fire pixels detected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) across the Central African Republic (CAR). Results indicate that the omission rate of the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm relative to MODIS varies spatially across the CAR, ranging from 25% in the south to 74% in the east. In the absence of confounding artifacts such as sunglint, uncertainties in the background thermal characterization, and cloud cover, the regional variation in SEVIRI's omission rate can be attributed to a coupling between SEVIRI's low spatial resolution detection bias (i.e., the inability to detect fires below a certain size and intensity) and a strong geographic gradient in active fire characteristics across the CAR. SEVIRI's commission rate relative to MODIS increases from 9% when evaluated near MODIS nadir to 53% near the MODIS scene edges, indicating that SEVIRI errors of commission at the MODIS scene edges may not be false alarms but rather true fires that MODIS failed to detect as a result of larger pixel sizes at extreme MODIS scan angles. Results from this work are expected to facilitate (i) future improvements to the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm; (ii) the assimilation of the SEVIRI and MODIS active fire products; and (iii) the potential inclusion of SEVIRI into a network of geostationary sensors designed to achieve global diurnal active fire monitoring.

Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage

Fossil fuel power generation and other industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are a threat to global climate1, yet many economies will remain reliant on these technologies for several decades2. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations provides an effective option to remove these emissions from the climate system3. In many regions storage reservoirs are located offshore4, 5, over a kilometre or more below societally important shelf seas6. Therefore, concerns about the possibility of leakage7, 8 and potential environmental impacts, along with economics, have contributed to delaying development of operational CCS. Here we investigate the detectability and environmental impact of leakage from a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2. We show that the biological impact and footprint of this small leak analogue (<1 tonne CO2 d−1) is confined to a few tens of metres. Migration of CO2 through the shallow seabed is influenced by near-surface sediment structure, and by dissolution and re-precipitation of calcium carbonate naturally present in sediments. Results reported here advance the understanding of environmental sensitivity to leakage and identify appropriate monitoring strategies for full-scale carbon storage operations.

Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage

Fossil fuel power generation and other industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are a threat to global climate1, yet many economies will remain reliant on these technologies for several decades2. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations provides an effective option to remove these emissions from the climate system3. In many regions storage reservoirs are located offshore4, 5, over a kilometre or more below societally important shelf seas6. Therefore, concerns about the possibility of leakage7, 8 and potential environmental impacts, along with economics, have contributed to delaying development of operational CCS. Here we investigate the detectability and environmental impact of leakage from a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2. We show that the biological impact and footprint of this small leak analogue (<1 tonne CO2 d−1) is confined to a few tens of metres. Migration of CO2 through the shallow seabed is influenced by near-surface sediment structure, and by dissolution and re-precipitation of calcium carbonate naturally present in sediments. Results reported here advance the understanding of environmental sensitivity to leakage and identify appropriate monitoring strategies for full-scale carbon storage operations.

Detection of Human Enteric Viruses in Freshwater from European Countries

The transmission of water-borne pathogens typically occurs by a faecal–oral route, through inhalation of aerosols, or by direct or indirect contact with contaminated water. Previous molecular-based studies have identified viral particles of zoonotic and human nature in surface waters. Contaminated water can lead to human health issues, and the development of rapid methods for the detection of pathogenic microorganisms is a valuable tool for the prevention of their spread. The aims of this work were to determine the presence and identity of representative human pathogenic enteric viruses in water samples from six European countries by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR) and to develop two quantitative PCR methods for Adenovirus 41 and Mammalian Orthoreoviruses. A 2-year survey showed that Norovirus, Mammalian Orthoreovirus and Adenoviruses were the most frequently identified enteric viruses in the sampled surface waters. Although it was not possible to establish viability and infectivity of the viruses considered, the detectable presence of pathogenic viruses may represent a potential risk for human health. The methodology developed may aid in rapid detection of these pathogens for monitoring

Detection of Human Enteric Viruses in Freshwater from European Countries

The transmission of water-borne pathogens typically occurs by a faecal–oral route, through inhalation of aerosols, or by direct or indirect contact with contaminated water. Previous molecular-based studies have identified viral particles of zoonotic and human nature in surface waters. Contaminated water can lead to human health issues, and the development of rapid methods for the detection of pathogenic microorganisms is a valuable tool for the prevention of their spread. The aims of this work were to determine the presence and identity of representative human pathogenic enteric viruses in water samples from six European countries by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR) and to develop two quantitative PCR methods for Adenovirus 41 and Mammalian Orthoreoviruses. A 2-year survey showed that Norovirus, Mammalian Orthoreovirus and Adenoviruses were the most frequently identified enteric viruses in the sampled surface waters. Although it was not possible to establish viability and infectivity of the viruses considered, the detectable presence of pathogenic viruses may represent a potential risk for human health. The methodology developed may aid in rapid detection of these pathogens for monitoring