Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

PCR from the CPR offers a historical perspective on marine population ecology.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has collected plankton samples from regular tracks across the world's oceans for almost 70 y. Over 299,000 spatially extensive CPR samples are archived and stored in buffered formalin. This CPR archive offers huge potential to study changes in marine communities using molecular data from a period when marine pollution, exploitation and global anthropogenic impact were much less pronounced. However, to harness the amount of data available within the CPR archive fully, it is necessary to improve techniques of larval identification, to genus and species preferably, and to obtain genetic information for historical studies of population ecology. To increase the potential of the CPR database this paper describes the first extraction, amplification by the polymerase chain reaction and utilization of a DNA sequence (mitochondrial 16S rDNA) from a CPR sample, a formalin fixed larval sandeel.

Population-Dynamics And Production Of Euphausiids. IV Euphausia-Krohni Nematoscelis-Megalops And Thysanoessa-Gregaria And 8 Rare Species In The North-Atlantic Ocean

Seasonal changes in the abundance, size and occurrence of furciliae of Euphausia krohni (Brandt), Nematoscelis megalops (G. O. Sars) and Thysanoessa gregaria G. O. Sars are described from samples taken at 10 m depth with the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) over a period of 2 yr (January 1966 to December 1967) in the North Atlantic Ocean. E. krohni and T. gregaria were found to breed through most of the year but N. megalops bred only in spring and summer. Annual mean biomass was calculated directly from the data and production was estimated from published P:B ratios. The seasonal occurrences of E. brevis Hansen, E. hemigibba Hansen, E. mutica Hansen, E. tenera Hansen, Stylocheiron longicorne G. O. Sars, S. maximum Hansen, Thysanopoda acutifrons Holt and Tattershall and T. aequalis Hansen in the samples are described.

Population-Dynamics And Production Of Euphausiids. III Meganyctiphanes-Norvegica And Nyctiphanes-Couchi In The North-Atlantic Ocean And The North-Sea

Seasonal changes in abundance, size and aspects of the population structure of Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars) and Nyctiphanes couchi (Bell) are described from samples taken with the “Continuous Plankton Recorder” at 10 m depth over a 2 yr period (1966 and 1967) in the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea. M. norvegica lived for a maximum of just over 2 yr, and adults of both year-classes spawned during a limited breeding season in the spring or summer. N. couchi spawned over a prolonged breeding season, giving rise to a complex of cohorts with overlapping size ranges. It was concluded that 3 or 4 cohorts were spawned in each year and that the maximum life span was probably greater than 1 yr, although maturity may be attained in less than a year. Estimated annual production at 10 m depth for M. norvegica ranged from 0.80 to 18.74 mg m-3yr-1 and for N. couchi from 0.67 to 8.23 mg m-3yr-1. P:B ratios ranged from 1.3:1 to 6.3:1 for M. norvegica and 4.0:1 to 5.5:1 for N. couchi.

Continuous Plankton Records - Persistence In Time-Series And The Population-Dynamics Of Pseudocalanus-Elongatus And Acartia-Clausi

Rates of population increase in early spring and the sizes of overwintering stocks were calculated for the planktonic copepods Pseudocalanus elongatus and Acartia clausi for a set of areas covering the open waters of the north-east Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea for the period 1948 to 1979. For both species, the rates of population increase were higher in the open ocean than in the North Sea and appear to be related to temperature. The overwintering stocks in the North Sea were larger than those in the open ocean and are probably related to phytoplanton concentration. P. elongatus shows higher overwintering stocks and lower rates of population increase than A. clausi, resulting in different levels of persistence in the stocks of the two species. It is suggested that this difference in persistence is responsible for differences between the two species with respect to geographical distribution in summer and different patterns of year-to-year fluctuations in abundance.