The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey: How can long-term phytoplankton datasets contribute to the assessment of Good Environmental Status?

Phytoplankton are crucial to marine ecosystem functioning and are important indicators of environmental change. Phytoplankton data are also essential for informing management and policy, particularly in supporting the new generation of marine legislative drivers, which take a holistic ecosystem approach to management. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) seeks to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) of European seas through the implementation of such a management approach. This is a regional scale directive which recognises the importance of plankton communities in marine ecosystems; plankton data at the appropriate spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales are therefore required for implementation. The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is a multidecadal, North Atlantic basin scale programme which routinely records approximately 300 phytoplankton taxa. Because of these attributes, the survey plays a key role in the implementation of the MSFD and the assessment of GES in the Northeast Atlantic region. This paper addresses the role of the CPR's phytoplankton time-series in delivering GES through the development and informing of MSFD indicators, the setting of targets against a background of climate change and the provision of supporting information used to interpret change in non-plankton indicators. We also discuss CPR data in the context of other phytoplankton data types that may contribute to GES, as well as explore future possibilities for the use of new and innovative applications of CPR phytoplankton datasets in delivering GES. Efforts must be made to preserve long-term time series, such as the CPR, which supply vital ecological information used to informed evidence-based environmental policy.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey: How can long-term phytoplankton datasets contribute to the assessment of Good Environmental Status?

Phytoplankton are crucial to marine ecosystem functioning and are important indicators of environmental change. Phytoplankton data are also essential for informing management and policy, particularly in supporting the new generation of marine legislative drivers, which take a holistic ecosystem approach to management. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) seeks to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) of European seas through the implementation of such a management approach. This is a regional scale directive which recognises the importance of plankton communities in marine ecosystems; plankton data at the appropriate spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales are therefore required for implementation. The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is a multidecadal, North Atlantic basin scale programme which routinely records approximately 300 phytoplankton taxa. Because of these attributes, the survey plays a key role in the implementation of the MSFD and the assessment of GES in the Northeast Atlantic region. This paper addresses the role of the CPR's phytoplankton time-series in delivering GES through the development and informing of MSFD indicators, the setting of targets against a background of climate change and the provision of supporting information used to interpret change in non-plankton indicators. We also discuss CPR data in the context of other phytoplankton data types that may contribute to GES, as well as explore future possibilities for the use of new and innovative applications of CPR phytoplankton datasets in delivering GES. Efforts must be made to preserve long-term time series, such as the CPR, which supply vital ecological information used to informed evidence-based environmental policy.