Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Ecological Relations Between the Herring and the Plankton off The North-East Coast of England

I. 430 plankton samples, which were taken by several herring drifters using the Continuous Plankton Recorder in the Shields fishing area during the summer seasons of 1931 to 1933, are analysed to show the main changes in the plankton during those seasons. 2. A comparison is made between the proportions of the different zooplankton organisms found in the plankton and the proportions of these recorded by Savage (1937) in the stomachs of herring obtained from drifters working in the same area and during the same time. The comparisons are made for 29 ten-day periods in the seasons 1931 to 1933, and in addition, for 6 ten-day periods relating to a single drifter which obtained both plankton and stomach samples at the same time in 1932. 3. The comparisons in 2 provide evidence that the herring feeds by selecting certain organisms by individual acts of capture and not by swimming open-mouthed to strain out the plankton indiscriminately: (a) Calanus and Temora in the stomachs either correspond fairly closely to the proportions in the plankton or they may be in very much higher proportions. The latter is always true regarding Anomalocera. (b) Acartia, Oithona, Cladocera and Lamellibranch larvae are always in larger proportions in the plankton than in the stomachs; this applies also to Centropages with two insignificant exceptions. (c) There is a close correspondence between the numbers of Limacina and Sagitta in the plankton and stomachs in the latter half of the 1931 season, but not during 1932 and 1933, when the numbers in the stomachs were insignificant ; during the former period there was a great scarcity of Calanus in the plankton.

Assimilation of remotely-sensed optical properties to improve marine biogeochemistry modelling

In this paper we evaluate whether the assimilation of remotely-sensed optical data into a marine ecosystem model improves the simulation of biogeochemistry in a shelf sea. A localized Ensemble Kalman filter was used to assimilate weekly diffuse light attenuation coefficient data, Kd(443) from SeaWiFs, into an ecosystem model of the western English Channel. The spatial distributions of (unassimilated) surface chlorophyll from satellite, and a multivariate time series of eighteen biogeochemical and optical variables measured in situ at one long-term monitoring site were used to evaluate the system performance for the year 2006. Assimilation reduced the root mean square error and improved the correlation with the assimilated Kd(443) observations, for both the analysis and, to a lesser extent, the forecast estimates, when compared to the reference model simulation. Improvements in the simulation of (unassimilated) ocean colour chlorophyll were less evident, and in some parts of the Channel the simulation of this data deteriorated. The estimation errors for the (unassimilated) in situ data were reduced for most variables with some exceptions, e.g. dissolved nitrogen. Importantly, the assimilation adjusted the balance of ecosystem processes by shifting the simulated food web towards the microbial loop, thus improving the estimation of some properties, e.g. total particulate carbon. Assimilation of Kd(443) outperformed a comparative chlorophyll assimilation experiment, in both the estimation of ocean colour data and in the simulation of independent in situ data. These results are related to relatively low error in Kd(443) data, and because it is a bulk optical property of marine ecosystems. Assimilation of remotely-sensed optical properties is a promising approach to improve the simulation of biogeochemical and optical variables that are relevant for ecosystem functioning and climate change studies.

An interlaboratory comparison for the quantification of aqueous dimethylsulfide

An interlaboratory comparison (ILC) was conducted to evaluate the proficiency of multiple laboratories to quantify dimethylsulfide (DMS) in aqueous solution. Ten participating laboratories were each supplied with blind duplicate test solutions containing dimethylsulfoniopropionate hydrochloride (DMSP HCl) dissolved in acidified artificial seawater. The test solutions were prepared by the coordinating laboratory from a DMSP HCl reference material that was synthesized and purity certified for this purpose. A concentration range was specified for the test solutions and the participating laboratories were requested to dilute them as required for their analytical procedure, together with the addition of excess alkali under gas-tight conditions to convert the DMSP to DMS. Twenty-two DMS concentrations and their estimated expanded measurement uncertainties (95% confidence level) were received from the laboratories. With two exceptions, the within-laboratory variability was 5% or less and the between-laboratory variability was ~ 25%. The magnitude of expanded measurement uncertainties reported from all participants ranged from 1% to 33% relative to the result. The information gained from this pilot ILC indicated the need for further test sample distribution studies of this type so that participating laboratories can identify systematic errors in their analysis procedures and realistically evaluate their measurement uncertainty. The outcome of ILC studies provides insights into the comparability of data in the global surface seawater DMS database.

Questioning the role of phenology shifts and trophic mismatching in a planktonic food web

In a warming climate, differential shifts in the seasonal timing of predators and prey have been suggested to lead to trophic ‘‘mismatches’’ that decouple primary, secondary and tertiary production. We tested this hypothesis using a 25-year time-series of weekly sampling at the Plymouth L4 site, comparing 57 plankton taxa spanning 4 trophic levels. During warm years, there was a weak tendency for earlier timings of spring taxa and later timings of autumn taxa. While this is in line with many previous findings, numerous exceptions existed and only a few taxa (e.g. Gyrodinium spp., Pseudocalanus elongatus, and Acartia clausi) showed consistent, strong evidence for temperature-related timing shifts, revealed by all 4 of the timing indices that we used. Also, the calculated offsets in timing i.e. ‘‘mismatches’’) between predator and prey were no greater in extreme warm or cold years than during more average years. Further, the magnitude of these offsets had no effect on the ‘‘success’’ of the predator, in terms of their annual mean abundance or egg production rates. Instead numerous other factors override, including: inter-annual variability in food quantity, high food baseline levels, turnover rates and prolonged seasonal availability, allowing extended periods of production. Furthermore many taxa, notably meroplankton, increased well before the spring bloom. While theoretically a chronic mismatch, this likely reflects trade-offs for example in predation avoidance. Various gelatinous taxa (Phaeocystis, Noctiluca, ctenophores, appendicularians, medusae) may have reduced these predation constraints, with variable, explosive population outbursts likely responding to improved conditions. The match–mismatch hypothesis may apply for highly seasonal, pulsed systems or specialist feeders, but we suggest that the concept is being over-extended to other marine systems where multiple factors compensate.