Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Polychlorinated Biphenyl DDT And Dieldrin Residues In Grey Seal (Halichoerus-Grypus) Males Females And Mother-Foetus Pairs Sampled At The Farne Islands England During The Breeding-Season

PCB, DDT, DDE, dieldrin and total non-polar organohalogen residues have been determined in the blubber-lipid of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) sampled during the 1972 breeding season (November) at the Farne Islands off the north eastern coast of England. PCBs were analysed by gas-liquid chromatography linked to a chlorine- and carbon-selective microwave plasma detector and total organohalogen residues were determined by microcoulometry. Total organohalogen residues were negatively correlated with blubber thickness and positively correlated with age in males (aged 1 to 24 y) and females (aged 5 to 38 y). However, the correlation of blubber-lipid residue with age in males depended upon the inclusion of immature (aged < 6 y) animals, and in females reflected only a small residue increment. The mean blubber organohalogen concentration of the males was significantly greater than that of the females. PCB and DDT group residue concentrations were significantly correlated. PCB, DDT, DDE and dieldrin were detected in the liver of mother/foetus pairs demonstrating transplacental movement of these residues. The possibility of the condition of the seals at breeding time influencing residue levels and of these residues influencing the health of the population is discussed.