Comparison of new and primary production models using SeaWiFS data in contrasting hydrographic zones of the northern North Atlantic.

The accuracy of two satellite models of marine primary (PP) and new production (NP) were assessed against 14C and 15N uptake measurements taken during six research cruises in the northern North Atlantic. The wavelength resolving model (WRM) was more accurate than the Vertical General Production Model (VGPM) for computation of both PP and NP. Mean monthly satellite maps of PP and NP for both models were generated from 1997 to 2010 using SeaWiFS data for the Irminger basin and North Atlantic. Intra- and inter-annual variability of the two models was compared in six hydrographic zones. Both models exhibited similar spatio-temporal patterns: PP and NP increased from April to June and decreased by August. Higher values were associated with the East Greenland Current (EGC), Iceland Basin (ICB) and the Reykjanes Ridge (RKR) and lower values occurred in the Central Irminger Current (CIC), North Irminger Current (NIC) and Southern Irminger Current (SIC). The annual PP and NP over the SeaWiFS record was 258 and 82 gC m-2 yr-1 respectively for the VGPM and 190 and 41 gC m-2 yr-1 for the WRM. Average annual cumulative sum in the anomalies of NP for the VGPM were positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the EGC, CIC and SIC and negatively correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) in the ICB. By contrast, cumulative sum of the anomalies of NP for the WRM were significantly correlated with NAO only in the EGC and CIC. NP from both VGPM and WRM exhibited significant negative correlations with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in all hydrographic zones. The differences in estimates of PP and NP in these hydrographic zones arise principally from the parameterisation of the euphotic depth and the SST dependence of photo-physiological term in the VGPM, which has a greater sensitivity to variations in temperature than the WRM. In waters of 0 to 5C PP using the VGPM was 43% higher than WRM, from 5 to 10C the VGPM was 29% higher and from 10 to 15C the VGPM was 27% higher.

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.

Biophysical models of larval dispersal in the Benguela Current ecosystem

We synthesise and update results from the suite of biophysical, larval-dispersal models developed in the Benguela Current ecosystem. Biophysical models of larval dispersal use outputs of physical hydrodynamic models as inputs to individual-based models in which biological processes acting during the larval life are included. In the Benguela, such models were first applied to simulate the dispersal of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax ichthyoplankton, and more recently of the early life stages of chokka-squid Loligo reynaudii and Cape hakes Merluccius spp. We identify how the models have helped advance understanding of key processes for these species. We then discuss which aspects of the early life of marine species in the Benguela Current ecosystem are still not well understood and could benefit from new modelling studies.

A method for semi-automated objective quantification of linear bedforms from multi-scale Digital Elevation Models

The increasing availability of large, detailed digital representations of the Earth’s surface demands the application of objective and quantitative analyses. Given recent advances in the understanding of the mechanisms of formation of linear bedform features from a range of environments, objective measurement of their wavelength, orientation, crest and trough positions, height and asymmetry is highly desirable. These parameters are also of use when determining observation-based parameters for use in many applications such as numerical modelling, surface classification and sediment transport pathway analysis. Here, we (i) adapt and extend extant techniques to provide a suite of semi-automatic tools which calculate crest orientation, wavelength, height, asymmetry direction and asymmetry ratios of bedforms, and then (ii) undertake sensitivity tests on synthetic data, increasingly complex seabeds and a very large-scale (39 000km2) aeolian dune system. The automated results are compared with traditional, manually derived,measurements at each stage. This new approach successfully analyses different types of topographic data (from aeolian and marine environments) from a range of sources, with tens of millions of data points being processed in a semi-automated and objective manner within minutes rather than hours or days. The results from these analyses show there is significant variability in all measurable parameters in what might otherwise be considered uniform bedform fields. For example, the dunes of the Rub’ al Khali on the Arabian peninsula are shown to exhibit deviations in dimensions from global trends. Morphological and dune asymmetry analysis of the Rub’ al Khali suggests parts of the sand sea may be adjusting to a changed wind regime from that during their formation 100 to 10 ka BP.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.