An individual-based model of the early life history of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic, simulating transport, growth and mortality

The main purpose of this paper is to provide the core description of the modelling exercise within the Shelf Edge Advection Mortality And Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for the prediction of year-to-year survival of the early life-history stages of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic. The IBM is one of two components of the model system. The first component is a circulation model to provide physical input data for the IBM. The circulation model is a geographical variant of the HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The second component is the IBM, which is an i-space configuration model in which large numbers of individuals are followed as discrete entities to simulate the transport, growth and mortality of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae. Larval and post-larval growth is modelled as a function of length, temperature and food distribution; mortality is modelled as a function of length and absolute growth rate. Each particle is considered as a super-individual representing 10 super(6) eggs at the outset of the simulation, and then declining according to the mortality function. Simulations were carried out for the years 1998-2000. Results showed concentrations of particles at Porcupine Bank and the adjacent Irish shelf, along the Celtic Sea shelf-edge, and in the southern Bay of Biscay. High survival was observed only at Porcupine and the adjacent shelf areas, and, more patchily, around the coastal margin of Biscay. The low survival along the shelf-edge of the Celtic Sea was due to the consistently low estimates of food availability in that area.

Mechanisms of long-term decline in size of lesser sandeels in the North Sea explored using a growth and phenology model

The lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus is a key species in the North Sea ecosystem, transferring energy from planktonic producers to top predators. Previous studies have shown a long-term decline in the size of 0-group sandeels in the western North Sea, but they were unable to pinpoint the mechanism (later hatching, slower growth or changes in size-dependent mortality) or cause. To investigate the first 2 possibilities we combined 2 independent time series of sandeel size, namely data from chick-feeding Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica and from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), in a novel statistical model implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model estimated annual mean length on 1 July, as well as hatching date and growth rate for sandeels from 1973 to 2006. Mean length-at-date declined by 22% over this period, corresponding to a 60% decrease in energy content, with a sharper decline since 2002. Up to the mid-1990s, the decline was associated with a trend towards later hatching. Subsequently, hatching became earlier again, and the continued trend towards smaller size appears to have been driven by lower growth rates, particularly in the most recent years, although we could not rule out changes in size-dependent mortality. Our findings point to major changes in key aspects of sandeel life history, which we consider are most likely due to direct and indirect temperature-related changes over a range of biotic factors, including the seasonal distribution of copepods and intra- and inter-specific competition with planktivorous fish. The results have implications both for the many predators of sandeels and for age and size of maturation in this aggregation of North Sea sandeels.

Interaction Effects of Light, Temperature and Nutrient Limitations (N, P and Si) on Growth, Stoichiometry and Photosynthetic Parameters of the Cold-Water Diatom Chaetoceros wighamii

Light (20-450 μmol photons m^-2 s^-1), temperature (3-11°C) and inorganic nutrient composition (nutrient replete and N, P and Si limitation) were manipulated to study their combined influence on growth, stoichiometry (C:N:P:Chl a) and primary production of the cold water diatom Chaetoceros wighamii. During exponential growth, the maximum growth rate (~0.8 d^-1) was observed at high temperture and light; at 3°C the growth rate was ~30% lower under similar light conditions. The interaction effect of light and temperature were clearly visible from growth and cellular stoichiometry. The average C:N:P molar ratio was 80:13:1 during exponential growth, but the range, due to different light acclimation, was widest at the lowest temperature, reaching very low C:P (~50) and N:P ratios (~8) at low light and temperature. The C:Chl a ratio had also a wider range at the lowest temperature during exponential growth, ranging 16-48 (weight ratio) at 3°C compared with 17-33 at 11°C. During exponential growth, there was no clear trend in the Chl a normalized, initial slope (α*) of the photosynthesis-irradiance (PE) curve, but the maximum photosynthetic production (P_m) was highest for cultures acclimated to the highest light and temperature. During the stationary growth phase, the stoichiometric relationship depended on the limiting nutrient, but with generally increasing C:N:P ratio. The average photosynthetic quotient (PQ) during exponential growth was 1.26 but decreased to <1 under nutrient and light limitation, probably due to photorespiration. The results clearly demonstrate that there are interaction effects between light, temperature and nutrient limitation, and the data suggests greater variability of key parameters at low temperature. Understanding these dynamics will be important for improving models of aquatic primary production and biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate.