Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Challenges for implementing the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in a climate of macroecological change

Unprecedented basin-scale ecological changes are occurring in our seas. As temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations increase, the extent of sea ice is decreasing, stratification and nutrient regimes are changing and pH is decreasing. These unparalleled changes present new challenges for managing our seas, as we are only just beginning to understand the ecological manifestations of these climate alterations. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires all European Member States to achieve good environmental status (GES) in their seas by 2020; this means management towards GES will take place against a background of climate-driven macroecological change. Each Member State must set environmental targets to achieve GES; however, in order to do so, an understanding of large-scale ecological change in the marine ecosystem is necessary. Much of our knowledge of macroecological change in the North Atlantic is a result of research using data gathered by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, a near-surface plankton monitoring programme that has been sampling in the North Atlantic since 1931. CPR data indicate that North Atlantic and North Sea plankton dynamics are responding to both climate and human-induced changes, presenting challenges to the development of pelagic targets for achievement of GES in European Seas. Thus, the continuation of long-term ecological time series such as the CPR survey is crucial for informing and supporting the sustainable management of European seas through policy mechanisms.

Why is it so hard to set MSFD indicators and targets? Messages from the plankton

Unprecedented basin-scale ecological changes are occurring in our seas. As temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations increase, the extent of sea ice is decreasing, stratification and nutrient regimes are changing, and pH is decreasing. These unparalleled changes present new challenges for managing our seas as we are only just beginning to understand the ecological manifestations of these climate alterations. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires all European Member States to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) in their seas by 2020; this means management toward GES will take place against a background of climate-driven macroecological change. Each Member State must set environmental targets to achieve GES; however, in order to do so an understanding of large-scale ecological change in the marine ecosystem is necessary. Much of our knowledge of macroecological change in the North Atlantic is a result of research using data gathered by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, a near-surface plankton monitoring program which has been sampling in the North Atlantic since 1931. CPR data indicate that North Atlantic and North Sea plankton dynamics are responding to both climate and human-induced changes, presenting challenges to the development of pelagic targets for achievement of GES in European seas. Thus the continuation of long-term ecological time-series such as the CPR is crucial for informing and supporting the sustainable management of European seas through policy mechanisms.