Climate-related increases in jellyfish frequency suggest a more gelatinous future for the North Sea

Data obtained since 1958 from the continuous plankton recorder show an increasing occurrence of jellyfish in the central North Sea that is positively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic inflow to the northern North Sea. Since 1970, jellyfish frequency has been also significantly negatively correlated with mean annual pH, independent of NAO trends. Jellyfish frequency increased in the mid-1980s, coincident with the reported regime shift in the North Sea and tracking trends in phytoplankton color. As models produced under all climate-change scenarios indicate a move toward a positive NAO, and pH of the oceans is predicted to decrease with rising CO2, we suggest that jellyfish frequency will increase over the next 100 yr.

Living in warmer, more acidic oceans retards physiological recovery from tidal emersion in the velvet swimming crab, Necora puber

The distribution patterns of many species in the intertidal zone are partly determined by their ability to survive and recover from tidal emersion. During emersion, most crustaceans experience gill collapse, impairing gas exchange. Such collapse generates a state of hypoxemia and a hypercapnia-induced respiratory acidosis, leading to hyperlactaemia and metabolic acidosis. However, how such physiological responses to emersion are modified by prior exposure to elevated CO2 and temperature combinations, indicative of future climate change scenarios, is not known. We therefore investigated key physiological responses of velvet swimming crabs, Necora puber, kept for 14 days at one of four pCO(2)/temperature treatments (400 mu atm/10 degrees C, 1000 mu atm/10 degrees C, 400 mu atm/15 degrees C or 1000 mu atm/15 degrees C) to experimental emersion and recovery. Pre-exposure to elevated pCO(2) and temperature increased pre-emersion bicarbonate ion concentrations [HCO3-], increasing resistance to short periods of emersion (90 min). However, there was still a significant acidosis following 180 min emersion in all treatments. The recovery of extracellular acid-base via the removal of extracellular pCO(2) and lactate after emersion was significantly retarded by exposure to both elevated temperature and pCO(2). If elevated environmental pCO(2) and temperature lead to slower recovery after emersion, then some predominantly subtidal species that also inhabit the low to mid shore, such as N. puber, may have a reduced physiological capacity to retain their presence in the low intertidal zone, ultimately affecting their bathymetric range of distribution, as well as the structure and diversity of intertidal assemblages.

Are Fast Responses More Random? Testing the Effect of Response Time on Scale in an Online Choice Experiment

Scepticism over stated preference surveys conducted online revolves around the concerns over “professional respondents” who might rush through the questionnaire without sufficiently considering the information provided. To gain insight on the validity of this phenomenon and test the effect of response time on choice randomness, this study makes use of a recently conducted choice experiment survey on ecological and amenity effects of an offshore windfarm in the UK. The positive relationship between self-rated and inferred attribute attendance and response time is taken as evidence for a link between response time and cognitive effort. Subsequently, the generalised multinomial logit model is employed to test the effect of response time on scale, which indicates the weight of the deterministic relative to the error component in the random utility model. Results show that longer response time increases scale, i.e. decreases choice randomness. This positive scale effect of response time is further found to be non-linear and wear off at some point beyond which extreme response time decreases scale. While response time does not systematically affect welfare estimates, higher response time increases the precision of such estimates. These effects persist when self-reported choice certainty is controlled for. Implications of the results for online stated preference surveys and further research are discussed.