Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Trophodynamics and stability of regional scale ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic

This study addresses the long-term stability of three trophic groupings in the Northeast Atlantic at regional scales. The most abundant taxa representing phytoplankton, herbivorous copepods, and carnivorous zooplankton were examined from the Continuous Plankton Recorder database. Multivariate control charts using a Bray–Curtis similarity metric were used to assess whether fluctuations within trophic groupings were within or beyond the expected variability. Two evaluation periods were examined: annual changes between 1960 and 1999 (2000–2009 baseline) and recent changes between 2000 and 2009 (1960–1999 baseline). The trends over time in abundance/biomass of trophic levels were region-specific, especially in carnivorous copepods, where abundance did not mirror trends in the overall study area. The stability of phytoplankton was within the expected limits, although not in 2008 and 2009. Higher trophic levels were less stable, perhaps reflecting the added complexity of interactions governing their abundance. In addition, some regions were consistently less stable than others. Correlations in stability between adjacent trophic levels were positive at large marine ecosystem scale but generally non-significant at regional scales. The study suggests that certain regions may be particularly vulnerable to periods of instability in community structure. The benefits of using the control chart method rather than other multivariate measures of plankton dynamics are discussed.

Macrofauna along the Sudanese Red Sea coast: potential effect of mangrove clearance on community and trophic structure

Mangroves along the Sudanese Red Sea coast are under constant anthropogenic pressure. To better understand the influence of mangrove clearance on the intertidal benthic community, we investigated the composition, biodiversity and standing stock of the macrofauna communities at high-, mid- and low-water levels in three contrasting habitats: a bare sand flat, a cleared mangrove and an intact mangrove. In addition, a community-wide metric approach based on taxon-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope values was used to compare the trophic structure between the three habitats. The habitats differed significantly in terms of macrofaunal standing stock, community composition and trophic structure. The high- and mid-water levels of the intact mangroves showed a distinct macrofaunal community characterized by elevated densities and biomass, largely governed by higher decapod and gastropod abundances. Diversity was similar for cleared and intact mangroves, but much lower for the bare sand flat. Community-wide metrics indicated highest trophic diversity and community niche breadth in the intact mangroves. Differences between the cleared and intact mangroves can be partly attributed to differences in sediment characteristics resulting from mangrove clearance. These results suggest a significant impact of mangrove clearance on the macrofaunal community and trophic structure. This study calls for further investigations and management actions to protect and restore these habitats, and ensure the survival of this ecologically valuable coastal ecosystem.