Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

The Application Of Radioisotopes In The Study Of Estuarine Sedimentary Processes

The spatial and temporal distributions of some radionuclides in effluents originating from the British Nuclear Fuels Ltd (BNFL) reprocessing plant at Windscale, which are released into the Irish Sea, have been studied in sediments at 16 sites in the salt marsh region near Newbiggin on the Esk estuary Cumbria, England. The concentration of non-conservative radionuclides in surface sediments of the area cannot be described by a single parameter, but there is a high correlation with organic C, Cu, Al and the Si : Al ratio with particle size. The preservation of the historical record of the BNFL effluents in the Esk sediments is dependent on the hydrology of the area, as it effects such processes as accretion, erosion and remixing. From the 106Ru and 210Po concentrations and the 137Cs : 134Cs ratio in the sediment profiles with depth, we have identified these processes. Sedimentation rates at sites of accretion vary between 0·5 and 3 cm year−1. However, at some sites they appear to be much higher, approximately 6 cm year−1 in the top 10 cm, but they are not consistent throughout the depth profiles. This may be a true reflection of variable accretion related to sediment type, or one which is influenced by surficial mixing. Some cores showed evidence of continuous accretion but no significant radioactivity was detected at depths below 35–40 cm, indicating an overall sedimentation rate of approximately 1·5 cm year−1 for the 25–30-year period since BNFL effluents first entered the Irish Sea.

Laboratory Simulation Of Chemical Processes Induced By Estuarine Mixing - The Behavior Of Iron And Phosphate In Estuaries

A series of well stirred tank reactors has been shown to provide an adaptable laboratory analogue of a one-dimensional estuarine mixing profile which can be applied dynamically to the study of the chemistry of estuarine mixing. Simulations of the behaviour of iron and phosphate in the low salinity region of an estuary have been achieved with this system. The well documented general features of iron removal, involving rapid aggregation of river-borne colloids, were reproduced. Phosphate removal is attributable in part to the coagulation process, although specific adsorption of phosphate by colloids also appears to be significant.