A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development

Sustainable development depends on maintaining ecosystem services which are concentrated in coastal marine and estuarine ecosystems. Analyses of the science needed to manage human uses of ecosystem services have concentrated on terrestrial ecosystems. Our focus is on the provision of multidisciplinary data needed to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) for maintaining coastal ecosystem services based on comparative ecosystem analyses. Key indicators of pressures on coastal ecosystems, ecosystem states and the impacts of changes in states on services are identified for monitoring and analysis at a global coastal network of sentinel sites nested in the ocean-climate observing system. Biodiversity is targeted as the “master” indicator because of its importance to a broad spectrum of services. Ultimately, successful implementation of EBAs will depend on establishing integrated, holistic approaches to ocean governance that oversee the development of integrated, operational ocean observing systems based on the data and information requirements specified by a broad spectrum of stakeholders for sustainable development. Sustained engagement of such a spectrum of stakeholders on a global scale is not feasible. The global coastal network will need to be customized locally and regionally based on priorities established by stakeholders in their respective regions. The E.U. Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the U.S. Recommendations of the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force are important examples of emerging regional scale approaches. The effectiveness of these policies will depend on the co-evolution of ocean policy and the observing system under the auspices of integrated ocean governance.

Enhancing the Global Ocean Observing System to meet evidence based needs for the ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystem services

Ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) to managing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems, adapting to changes in ecosystem states (indicators of ecosystem health), and mitigating the impacts of state changes on ecosystem services are needed for sustainable development. EBAs are informed by integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) that must be compiled and updated frequently for EBAs to be effective. Frequently updated IEAs depend on the sustained provision of data and information on pressures, state changes, and impacts of state changes on services. Nowhere is this truer than in the coastal zone, where people and ecosystem services are concentrated and where anthropogenic pressures converge. This study identifies the essential indicator variables required for the sustained provision of frequently updated IEAs, and offers an approach to establishing a global network of coastal observations within the framework of the Global Ocean Observing System. The need for and challenges of capacity-building are highlighted, and examples are given of current programmes that could contribute to the implementation of a coastal ocean observing system of systems on a global scale. This illustrates the need for new approaches to ocean governance that can achieve coordinated integration of existing programmes and technologies as a first step towards this goal.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.