Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.

Key Questions in Marine Megafauna Movement Ecology

It is a golden age for animal movement studies and so an opportune time to assess priorities for future work. We assembled 40 experts to identify key questions in this field, focussing on marine megafauna, which include a broad range of birds, mammals, reptiles, and fish. Research on these taxa has both underpinned many of the recent technical developments and led to fundamental discoveries in the field. We show that the questions have broad applicability to other taxa, including terrestrial animals, flying insects, and swimming invertebrates, and, as such, this exercise provides a useful roadmap for targeted deployments and data syntheses that should advance the field of movement ecology.

Key Questions in Marine Megafauna Movement Ecology

It is a golden age for animal movement studies and so an opportune time to assess priorities for future work. We assembled 40 experts to identify key questions in this field, focussing on marine megafauna, which include a broad range of birds, mammals, reptiles, and fish. Research on these taxa has both underpinned many of the recent technical developments and led to fundamental discoveries in the field. We show that the questions have broad applicability to other taxa, including terrestrial animals, flying insects, and swimming invertebrates, and, as such, this exercise provides a useful roadmap for targeted deployments and data syntheses that should advance the field of movement ecology.

Are critically endangered fish back on the menu? Analysis of U.K. fisheries data suggest post-ban landings of prohibited skates in European waters

Skates (Rajidae) have been commercially exploited in Europe for hundreds of years with some species’ abundances declining dramatically during the twentieth century. In 2009 it became “prohibited for EU vessels to target, retain, tranship or land” certain species in some ICES areas, including the critically endangered common skate and the endangered white skate. To examine compliance with skate bans the official UK landings data for 2011–2014 were analysed. Surprisingly, it was found that after the ban prohibited species were still reported landed in UK ports, including 9.6 t of common skate during 2011–2014. The majority of reported landings of common and white skate were from northern UK waters and landed into northern UK ports. Although past landings could not be validated as being actual prohibited species, the landings’ patterns found reflect known abundance distributions that suggest actual landings were made, rather than sporadic occurrence across ports that would be evident if landings were solely due to systematic misidentification or data entry errors. Nevertheless, misreporting and data entry errors could not be discounted as factors contributing to the recorded landings of prohibited species. These findings raise questions about the efficacy of current systems to police skate landings to ensure prohibited species remain protected. By identifying UK ports with the highest apparent landings of prohibited species and those still landing species grouped as'skates and rays’, these results may aid authorities in allocating limited resources more effectively to reduce landings, misreporting and data errors of prohibited species, and increase species-specific landing compliance.

Are critically endangered fish back on the menu? Analysis of U.K. fisheries data suggest post-ban landings of prohibited skates in European waters

Skates (Rajidae) have been commercially exploited in Europe for hundreds of years with some species’ abundances declining dramatically during the twentieth century. In 2009 it became “prohibited for EU vessels to target, retain, tranship or land” certain species in some ICES areas, including the critically endangered common skate and the endangered white skate. To examine compliance with skate bans the official UK landings data for 2011–2014 were analysed. Surprisingly, it was found that after the ban prohibited species were still reported landed in UK ports, including 9.6 t of common skate during 2011–2014. The majority of reported landings of common and white skate were from northern UK waters and landed into northern UK ports. Although past landings could not be validated as being actual prohibited species, the landings’ patterns found reflect known abundance distributions that suggest actual landings were made, rather than sporadic occurrence across ports that would be evident if landings were solely due to systematic misidentification or data entry errors. Nevertheless, misreporting and data entry errors could not be discounted as factors contributing to the recorded landings of prohibited species. These findings raise questions about the efficacy of current systems to police skate landings to ensure prohibited species remain protected. By identifying UK ports with the highest apparent landings of prohibited species and those still landing species grouped as'skates and rays’, these results may aid authorities in allocating limited resources more effectively to reduce landings, misreporting and data errors of prohibited species, and increase species-specific landing compliance.